Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Jose Encarnacion, Jr. Author-Name-First: Jose Jr. Author-Name-Last: Encarnacion Author-Workplace-Name: School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman Title: A Threshold Model of Fertility Behavior Creation-Date: 1978-01 Publication-Status: Published as UPSE Discussion Paper No. DP 1978-01, January 1978 Number: 197801 Handle: RePEc:phs:dpaper:197801 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Armando Armas, Jr. Author-Name-First: Armando Jr. Author-Name-Last: Armas Author-Workplace-Name: School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman Title: Philippine Rural Electrification Revisited Creation-Date: 1978-02 Publication-Status: Published as UPSE Discussion Paper No. 1978-02, February 1978 Number: 197802 Handle: RePEc:phs:dpaper:197802 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Harry T. Oshima Author-Name-First: Harry Author-Name-Last: Oshima Author-Workplace-Name: School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman Title: Postwar Growth of the Service Sector in Asian Countries Abstract: The impact of public agricultural land distribution in the Philippines can be examined through an ex post facto analysis of the distribution of the resource. As differentiated from the redistribution of lands (e.g. land reform), the distribution confers benefits to certain social groups though the costs are not discernible on any particular set. Redistribution realizes thereafter the existence of an imbalance and therefore requires a direct loss to a certain group in order to make the other better off. Public agricultural lands are disposable under the following types of grant: (a) homestead, (b) sales (individual and corporate), (c) free-patent, (d) cadastral, (e) lease (individual and corporate), and (f) free title. Each has its own manner of acquisition as well as its maximum hectarage. Except for the free-patent, cadastral, and free-title concessions at least one-fifth of the agricultural land area must be cultivated prior to the release of the patents. Hence, farm-size inequality can be viewed either from two aspects: (a) inequality across public agricultural land grants due to differentials in the maximum hectarage, and (b) inequality in each type of concession due to differences in the levels of farm budget necessary to develop the stipulated land area. Where the public sector exercises minimal prerogative in the disposition of the resource, farm-size inequality is expected to be serious. As expected, the Gini ratio is high in the free-patent, cadastral, and sales (both individual and corporate) distributions. Relatively less inequality is seen in the other kinds of concessions. In the original paper, the total Gini ratio is decomposed into within-set and between-set components to determine sources of variation through size group comparisons. Except in some few cases, however, less significance can be attributed to the decomposition analyses by demographic and non-demographic factors. Much as this researcher desires to incorporate such few significant constraints, results imposed by the methodology of the original paper do not permit such. Creation-Date: 1978-03 Publication-Status: Published as UPSE Discussion Paper No. 1978-03, March 1978 Number: 197803 Handle: RePEc:phs:dpaper:197803 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Armando Armas, Jr. Author-Name-First: Armando Jr. Author-Name-Last: Armas Author-Workplace-Name: School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman Title: Employment Effects of Legal Minimum Wage in Philippine Manufacturing Industries Creation-Date: 1978-04 Publication-Status: Published as UPSE Discussion Paper No. 1978-04, April 1978 Number: 197804 Handle: RePEc:phs:dpaper:197804 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Rosa Linda P. Tidalgo Author-Name-First: Rosa Linda Author-Name-Last: Tidalgo Author-Name: Gonzalo M. Jurado Author-Name-First: Gonzalo Author-Name-Last: Jurado Author-Workplace-Name: School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman Title: The Informal Services Sector in the Greater Manila Area,1976 Creation-Date: 1978-04 Publication-Status: Published as UPSE Discussion Paper No. 1978-05, April 1978 Number: 197805 Handle: RePEc:phs:dpaper:197805 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Rolando A. Danao Author-Name-First: Rolando Author-Name-Last: Danao Title: The Linear Complementarity Problem: Solving Linear and Convex Quadratic Programming Problems by Lemke's Algorithm Creation-Date: 1978-05 Publication-Status: Published as UPSE Discussion Paper No. 1978-06, May 1978 Number: 197806 Handle: RePEc:phs:dpaper:197806 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Joseph Anthony Lim Author-Name-First: Joseph Anthony Author-Name-Last: Lim Author-Workplace-Name: School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman Title: The Effects of Socio Economic-Demographic Factors and Family Planning Programs on Fetility in Third World Countries Abstract: The controversial disagreement between the Third World and the developed countries as exhibited in the World Population Conference of 1974 in Bucharest focused on whether population control is best achieved through concentration on socio-economic development or on intensive family planning programs. This study tries to discover the effects of socio-economic conditions as well as some crude family planning measures on fertility through factor and regression analyses on data from Third World countries. These methods, however, can only ascertain the existence and magnitudes of correlative relationships and cannot imply casual effects. The analysis indicated that the socio-economic and demographic conditions do have very strong and statistically significant relationships with fertility. Furthermore, family planning program measures also seem to have significantly strong correlation with economic growth, education and population density. Family planning measures fail to show sufficiently significant relations with fertility. This is most probably due to the crudeness of data used in this study as well as the lack of sophistication and experience in family planning of most Third World countries. This supports the case of the importance of socio-economic conditions in population control. However the lag between development and fertility must be determined before development can be recommended as a solution to the population problem. It is safe to suggest that both developmental and family programs be adopted. Further studies - preferably at the micro level - need be made to determine the amount of concentration on each. But family planning programs should be considered in separable from the socio-economic and demographic situations. Creation-Date: 1978-06 Publication-Status: Published as UPSE Discussion Paper No. 1978-07, June 1978 Number: 197807 Handle: RePEc:phs:dpaper:197807 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Ernesto M. Pernia Author-Name-First: Ernesto Author-Name-Last: Pernia Author-Workplace-Name: School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman Title: An Intersectoral and Sequential Analysis of Migration Decision: Philippines Abstract: This paper attempts to refine the understanding of migration behavior by analyzing intersectorally and sequentially the decision to move. The main hypothesis is that the factor which influence migration decision vary depending on sector of origin and destination, as well as on whether the decision to be made involves a return to origin or a repeat move to another destination. The results of logit analysis show that such factors as education, occupation, expected monetary income, martial status, and sex exert different intersectoral and sequential effects on migration choice. An implication is that migration and labor mobility policy may be more realistic and, hence, effective if it views migration intersectorally and sequentially, in addition to considering the personal attributes of migrants or potential migrants. As a methodological exercise, the results of logit analysis are compared with those of OLS. The results appear to be virtually no different, lending support to the findings of similar exercises. While the logit model has a distinct statistical (theoretical) advantage, the use of OLS analysis would seem to make practical sense considering that logit analysis is a lot more expensive. Creation-Date: 1978-07 Publication-Status: Published as UPSE Discussion Paper No. 1978-08, July 1978 Number: 197808 Handle: RePEc:phs:dpaper:197808 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Gonzalo M. Jurado Author-Name-First: Gonzalo Author-Name-Last: Jurado Author-Name: Judy S. Castro Author-Name-First: Judy Author-Name-Last: Castro Title: The Informal Sector in the Greater Manila Area, 1976 : An Overview Abstract: This study describes informal sector enterprises in terms of their organizational and operational characteristics, discovers the impact of these characteristics upon the enterprises' productivity, employment and income generating power and explores policy measures to enhance the participation of informal sector enterprises in the realization of society's productivity, income and employment goals if such enhancement is desirable on social grounds. For purposes of the study, a sample of 3,500 enterprises in the Greater Manila Area was surveyed in the period March to May 1976. All in all there was little in the results of the survey to contradict a priori notions about the informal sector. The sector was characterized by low productivity, small employment, modest fixed assets, long hours of work and low wages. The majority of the enterprises finance their fixed and variable capital requirements from internally generated savings. The enterprises had very little linkage with the "formal" sector. Heads of enterprises were no longer young; almost all had formal education as well as were born outside of Greater Manila. Enterprise heads typically rented the house in which they stayed or shared it with relatives and friends. They had no other source of income except the enterprise. A number of variables representing characteristics of the enterprises and enterprise heads were used through stepwise regression to explain the enterprises' productivity, employment and income generating power but the exercise turned out to be singularly fruitless. From the maze of data that was gathered it seemed clear that contracting the sector was out of the question. The sector was characterized precisely by self-reliance, a quality that should be encouraged rather than discouraged. The "smallness" of informal sector enterprises tended to promote allocative efficiency rather than impair it. If policy on size is to be addressed to the informal sector, it should make no attempt to produce mergers excepts possibly on a selective sectoral basis. Through it seems like an island complete in itself, the informal sector does have links with the formal sector and this is mainly with the government. The government affects informal sector enterprises in three major ways: requiring their registration, collecting one form or other of tax from them, and "relocating" them. The majority of the enterprises said that these requirements and actions were restrictive. This is perhaps where policy can be brought to bear. If the informal sector is almost wholly self-reliant, policies intended to help the sector must, one, loosen up or eliminate restrictions, two, provide assistance that will either augment resources in the sector or improve the quality of resources already existing in the sector and, there, carry out "relocation" only when this is unavoidable and only after careful account is taken of the circumstances of families affected. The informal sector seems to be "of, by and for" low income households. The suggestion that the sector should not be contracted should not be construde to mean that the sector should be perpetuated. Rather the point is that the informal sector cannot be eliminated for as long as low income households exist. Once low income households have moved to the company of high income ones, the informal sector will disappear. Policy should therefore aim at enabling low income households to make the crucial transfer. Creation-Date: 1978-08 Publication-Status: Published as UPSE Discussion Paper No. 1978-09, August 1978 Number: 197809 Handle: RePEc:phs:dpaper:197809 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Armando Armas, Jr. Author-Name-First: Armando Jr. Author-Name-Last: Armas Author-Workplace-Name: School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman Title: The Informal Construction Sector in the Greater Manila Area Abstract: The study deals with the informal construction sector in the Greater Manila Area (GMA). The sectoral and regional distribution and growth of small vis-a-vis large establishments are analyzed in terms of value-added, employment, wage shares, among other factors, during the 1950s to the early 1970s. GMA accounted the largest number of construction firms, but the ratio of small to large firms was lowest in GMA than in any other region. Also GMA's small firms had significantly accounted a larger share in value-added, employment, and wages than those in any other region. Notwithstanding the greater share of GMA in the country's construction activities, small firms in GMA absorbed a negligible percentage of the area's construction output, employment and wage. Of the 11 establishments sampled for the construction industry in GMA, most had enormous values of capital equipment. It appears that the sample firms are owned by the poor or that capital requirements must be huge particularly in some construction activities. Turning to "enterpreneural" qualities, it is worth noting that all heads of the firms had formal education and had over 14 years of formal schooling. Known earnings of the entrepreneurs were substantially high and most of them preferred to stay in GMA due to this, although most felt that their earnings had not improved. In spite of high earnings, all of the sample firms felt that there are too many firms in the industry. And many expressed fears that larger enterprises affected their revenues to a great extent. The study concludes that small firms can be efficient because they, as a whole, survive in some activities like special trade contracting. It would be very difficult to conclude, however, that the optimum size for these activities should be small scale since we do not know whether the entry of new firms just offsets the exists of old ones. In some regions, small firms, in fact, registered greater labor productivity compared to big establishments. Like in our sample survey, however, this is imply that many small firms are very capital-intensive. Finally, because the government is the biggest client in the construction industry it is suggested that it should consider small firms in awarding construction work particularly where these firms can be subcontracted at, more or less, the same costs compared to big establishments. Creation-Date: 1978-09 Publication-Status: Published as UPSE Discussion Paper No. 1978-10, September 1978 Number: 197810 Handle: RePEc:phs:dpaper:197810 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Ricardo D. Ferrer Author-Name-First: Ricardo Author-Name-Last: Ferrer Author-Workplace-Name: School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman Author-Name: Gonzalo Jurado Author-Name-First: Gonzalo Author-Name-Last: Jurado Author-Workplace-Name: School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman Title: The Informal Trade Sector in the Greater Manila Area Abstract: The first part of this paper presents some of the salient features of the informal trade sector in Greater Manila Area. It is rather sketchy because to describe the sector more thoroughly implies that the inter-relation of the observed characteristics of the sector has already been unraveled. But the regularity of such interrelations failed to emerge from the more common exercise of estimating production functions for the sector. Such disappointing results are mentioned in the text but no longer discussed. A different approach is presented in the fourth section of the paper. A model of the informal trade sector is developed to explain why no systematic, i.e. statistically significant, relationship between value added per enterprise, for example, and supply variables like value of fixed assets, capacity utilization rates, etc. could be found. More importantly, the model is developed to help one understand the behavior of the informal trade sector. The latter part of this section confronts the model with data on the sector and the conclusion that seems to emerge is that the model indeed captures the essential characteristics of the sector. The last section builds on the findings in the preceding sections to lay the foundation for some rather tentative policy prescriptions for the sector. Lastly, the appendix suggests a possible way of using informal trade sector data as indicator of changes in personal income distribution. Lastly, the appendix suggests a possible way of using informal trade sector data as indicator of changes in personal income distribution. Creation-Date: 1978-09 Publication-Status: Published as UPSE Discussion Paper No. 1978-11, September 1978 Number: 197811 Handle: RePEc:phs:dpaper:197811 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: L. S. Venkataramanan Author-Name-First: L. S. Author-Name-Last: Venkataramanan Title: Normal Backwardation and Hedging Asymmetry Abstract: Two important questions have been raised in academic discussions on commodity futures markets: (1) Do speculators receive positive return for the risk bearing services they provide? and (2) Why are hedgers net short and speculators net long? This paper reviews the theory of Normal Backwardation and Hedging Asymmetry theories, which provide theoretical explanations to the questions, stated above. The econometric investigation of eight Indian futures markets reported in this paper provides evidence: (a) to show that long speculators have received positive return in most Indian futures markets and (b) to support that hedgers are net short. Creation-Date: 1978-09 Publication-Status: Published as UPSE Discussion Paper No. 1978-12, September 1978 Number: 197812 Handle: RePEc:phs:dpaper:197812 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Armando Armas, Jr. Author-Name-First: Armando Jr. Author-Name-Last: Armas Author-Workplace-Name: School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman Title: Philippine Intra-ASEAN Trade Liberalization Abstract: The paper analyzes the implication of intra-ASEAN trade liberalization viewed from the context of the Philippine economy. As a backdrop, the first section presents the features of the Philippine intra-ASEAN trade during the postwar period. Next, we look into the pattern of Philippine imports from the ASEAN region during the period 1972-1976. In the third section, the tariff structure of Philippine imports of ASEAN products in 1975 is compared with ASEAN partners' tariff rates. The first issue on intra-ASEAN trade liberalization pertains to expansion of Philippine imports due to tariff cuts. Using partial equilibrium analysis, a formula on import expansion is derived. In general, the direct effect of ASEAN tariff reduction on a given Philippine import group depends on the level of original tariff, and on the price elasticities of import demand. Based on 1975 data, under a 10 percent tariff cut across-the-board, import expansion varies among import groups. On the whole, a 10 percent across-the-board tariff cut would have negligible expansion effects on Philippines imports from all the other ASEAN countries or even from each ASEAN partner. Another important issue is the trade creation or diversion effects of ASEAN trade liberalization. Despite some serious difficulties, trade creation or diversion is evaluated by comparing unit values of Philippine imports from ASEAN vis-a- the world. Again based on 1975 data, Philippine imports from ASEAN at the least aggregated grouping are classified in terms of whether they were lower-priced, higher-priced, or equally priced imports from ASEAN vis-a-vis the world. On the number of import groups, more ASEAN items were priced higher compared to imports from the world. In terms of import expenditures, however, a greater part was spent on competitively priced ASEAN items. Furthermore, we determine the import expansion and trade creation effects of a tariff cut on the selected 150 Philippine items offered for preferential trading agreement. Based on 1975 data, the estimated import expansion effects varied among the selected items but, on the whole, constituted only a negligible portion of the estimated effects under a 10 percent across-the-board tariff cut. More important, on trade creation or diversion issue, higher-priced ASEAN items outnumbered lower-priced ones in the selected Philippine items. More import expenditures, however, were spent on the lower- than higher-priced items included in the Philippine commodity list for tariff concession. We conclude that the limited and selective approach toward freer ASEAN intra-trade may turn a long way to expand markets of Philippine industries and more so, an unsafe approach to rationalize industries. In the meantime, if economic planners want to enhance the trade creating effects of the ASEAN item-by-item tariff reduction program, they should look closer at the price differentials of ASEAN vis-a-vis non-ASEAN sources not only for one or two years but on a long run perspective. Even so, to rationalize the Philippine industries, an across-the-board tariff reduction is recommended on the principle of equal reduction in the effective protection rates. Yet a greater than 10 percent tariff reduction across-the-board, while inducing greater trade expansion, may lead to more distortionary effective protection rates as the original ASEAN tariff rates are, to start with, unequal. Thus we conclude that a gradual move towards a free trade area may appear a more logical way out of the Philippine dilemma of a limited market and inefficient industries. We finally argue that the common fear of industrial polarization has no economic basis. To end up with, some suggestions for further research are presented. Among others, we urge that research efforts should focus on the indirect, long-run effects of alternative trade liberalization scheme. Creation-Date: 1978-09 Publication-Status: Published as UPSE Discussion Paper No. 1978-13, September 1978 Number: 197813 Handle: RePEc:phs:dpaper:197813 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Edita A. Tan Author-Name-First: Edita Author-Name-Last: Tan Author-Workplace-Name: School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman Title: Measuring Poverty Incidence in a Segmented Market Creation-Date: 1978-09 Publication-Status: Published as UPSE Discussion Paper No. 1978-14, September 1978 Number: 197814 Handle: RePEc:phs:dpaper:197814 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Florian A. Alburo Author-Name-First: Florian Author-Name-Last: Alburo Author-Workplace-Name: School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman Title: Rising Protectionism in Developed Countries and Its Implications for Developing Countries Abstract: The paper lays out some of the issues around recent world economic events particularly rising protectionism in developed countries. These issues include export potential of manufactured products of developing countries, the interaction and consequences of developed country policies that restrict trade on developing countries, multilateral trade negotiations, and international trade patterns. To discuss the issues the paper traces factors that have led to rising protectionism, points out manifestations of protectionism, explains the implications for developing countries, and indicate directions for these countries. The paper concludes that the behavior of rising protectionism is detrimental to both developed and developing countries, puts a strain on commitments to free trade and distorts the natural and market process of comparative advantage positions of both types of countries. Creation-Date: 1978-10 Publication-Status: Published as UPSE Discussion Paper No. 1978-15, October 1978 Number: 197815 Handle: RePEc:phs:dpaper:197815 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Florian A. Alburo Author-Name-First: Florian Author-Name-Last: Alburo Author-Workplace-Name: School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman Title: Towards A Re-definition of Poverty Abstract: This paper is an attempt to examine a range of a definitions currently used to suggest poverty or as used in poverty studies. It is argued that the definitions suffer from serious and critical weaknesses. They are inadequate from a theoretical perspective and in giving useful policy options to direct resources for reducing poverty. It is then argued that perhaps an alternative poverty definition should use a methodology that rather departs from the way data are manipulated to arrive at a measure of poverty. Creation-Date: 1978-11 Publication-Status: Published as UPSE Discussion Paper No. 1978-16, November 1978 Number: 197816 Handle: RePEc:phs:dpaper:197816 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Florian A. Alburo Author-Name-First: Florian Author-Name-Last: Alburo Author-Workplace-Name: School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman Title: Comparative Agricultural Modernization and Non-Farm Economic Activities Abstract: The purpose of the paper is to describe non-farm economic activities in two towns of Iloilo in a comparative context. It is argued that with agricultural modernization of a range of non-farm activities are induced and the degree of these activities vary with the level of modernization. It is found from the data on the two towns that non-farm activities have emerged side-by-side with agricultural modernization and that there relative conditions can also be associated with their relative stage of modernization. Some development insights and general policy options are advanced as resulting from the study and as directions for further work. Creation-Date: 1978-12 Publication-Status: Published as UPSE Discussion Paper No. 1978-17, December 1978 Number: 197817 Handle: RePEc:phs:dpaper:197817