Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Ernesto M. Pernia Author-Name-First: Ernesto Author-Name-Last: Pernia Author-Workplace-Name: School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman Author-Name: Cayetano W. Paderanga, Jr. Author-Name-First: Cayetano Author-Name-Last: Paderanga, Jr. Author-Workplace-Name: School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman Title: Urbanization and Spatial Development in the Philippines : A Survey Abstract: This paper surveys urbanization and spatial development in the Philippines by reviewing studies dealing one way to another with the subject. The objective is to put spatial and urban issues in perspective so that an understanding of them may cumulate through research. Research on these issues has been generally fragmentary, lacking overall consistency and coherence. There is a need to view urbanization and spatial development within a unified framework. These two aspects of development are closely intertwined in that they both depend on the nature and pattern of industrialization as well as on the structure and pace of agricultural development. In addition, they are determined in no small measure by macroeconomic policies that exert explicit spatial biases, probably even more so than by regional and rural policies explicitly designed to foster dispersed regional development. Therefore, to be more useful, research and, by implication, policy should adopt a framework that takes into account these important dimensions. Creation-Date: 1980-01 Publication-Status: Published as UPSE Discussion Paper No. DP 1980-01, January 1980 Number: 198001 Handle: RePEc:phs:dpaper:198001 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Jose Encarnacion, Jr. Author-Name-First: Jose Author-Name-Last: Encarnacion, Jr. Author-Workplace-Name: School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman Title: A Simple Model of Economic Growth and Fluctuations Abstract: This paper considers a simple Keynesian macroeconomics model that allows for growth and fluctuation. Expansion and contraction are assumed to be due to temporarily systematic shocks that propel the economy away from a long-run equilibrium growth path. When such shocks has dissipated their effects, the economy returns to equilibrium growth. The model is compatible with unemployment as the usual state of affairs and price inflation in the presence of growing unemployment. Creation-Date: 1980-02 Publication-Status: Published as UPSE Discussion Paper No. 1980-02, February 1980 Number: 198002 Handle: RePEc:phs:dpaper:198002 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Jose Encarnacion, Jr. Author-Name-First: Jose Author-Name-Last: Encarnacion, Jr. Author-Workplace-Name: School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman Title: An Auxiliary Model for Quantifying the Socioeconomic Impact of a Development Project Abstract: One can in principle calculate the impact of a development project on various areas of concern to the policymaker. While some relationships among variables are specific to a particular project, there are also relationships that are common to all projects. A model of a latter would therefore be a common auxiliary to the specific model assessing the effects of different projects. This paper presents a partial specification of such an auxiliary model and gives estimates (using the 1973 National Demographic Survey data set, which does not suffice for estimating more than a partial specification) of multiple regression equations with marital fertility, child mortality and wife's employment status as dependent variables. Creation-Date: 1980-03 Publication-Status: Published as UPSE Discussion Paper No. 1980-03, March 1980 Number: 198003 Handle: RePEc:phs:dpaper:198003 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Jose Encarnacion, Jr. Author-Name-First: Jose Author-Name-Last: Encarnacion, Jr. Author-Workplace-Name: School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman Title: Group Choice with Lexicographic Preferences Abstract: Two models of group choice, different in the use of the Pareto principle, are considered in a framework of lexicographic preferences. The first model appears to have some explanatory value; the second is more normative. Both give a role to simple majority rule in determining the components that make up a group choice. In the second model, the desirability of an alternative depends on the entire feasible set, and it is argued that some apparently reasonable conditions on consistent choice cannot be mandatory. Creation-Date: 1980-04 Publication-Status: Published as UPSE Discussion Paper No. 1980-04, April 1980 Number: 198004 Handle: RePEc:phs:dpaper:198004 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Alejandro H. Herrin Author-Name-First: Alejandro Author-Name-Last: Herrin Author-Workplace-Name: School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman Title: Female Work Participation and Fertility in a Philippine Setting : A Test of Alternative Models Abstract: This paper reports on research exploring the relationship between female work participation and fertility in the Philippine setting. One innovation of this research is the collection of household survey data which includes information, unavailable in past Philippine data sets, on the work and fertility histories of currently married women, and on social, economic, demographic and socio-psychological factors associated with female work participation and fertility. This unique data set provided an opportunity to test alternative models suggested by the most recent literature on the topic. Joint and simultaneous determination models were tested to examine their relationship under three different perspectives: past, current and birth intervals. The overall result seems to suggest that relationship between female work participation and fertility is spurious whether these variables are viewed in the cumulative, current or birth interval contexts. Their correlation can be explained by their dependence on a common set of determinants. Among the more significant determinants are the potential earnings of the husband and the wife. These variables generally tend to reduce completed or current fertility and to lengthen the intervals of the higher order births among high parity women. They have opposite effects, however on female work participation: husband's potential earnings generally reduces, while wife's potential earnings generally increases participation. Another set of significant determinants are the socio-psychological variables, especially the normative orientations of the household as reflected by the husband's attitude toward female work. A husband's unfavorable attitude toward his wife's working away from home consistently reduces the wife's current work participation. These tentative results suggest that policies and programs to expand female employment in such settings as those that characterize Misamis Oriental Province, the site of the research, will probably have very little direct contribution to fertility reduction. Encouraging female employment, therefore, can best be pursued to meet its more traditional objectives of increasing family income and the economic participation of women in development. Female employment, however, could ultimately affect fertility indirectly via its effect on family income and on normative orientations regarding female roles. Studies examining these indirect mechanisms are therefore, encouraged. Creation-Date: 1980-04 Publication-Status: Published as UPSE Discussion Paper No. 1980-05, April 1980 Number: 198005 Handle: RePEc:phs:dpaper:198005 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Konosuke Odaka Author-Name-First: Konosuke Author-Name-Last: Odaka Title: A Theory of Ancillary Firm Development Abstract: The recent decades have observed a new surge of invest in an important role for small- and medium-sized firms to play in economic development. They not only offer greater employment opportunities but can also be a potential source of indigenous industrialization. The present paper argues that machinery industry is an excellent basis for such development, because its engineering properties can lead to vertically disintegrated industrial organization, where a multitude of dependent firms are specialized in the production of interchangeable parts and components. The paper attempts to assess major factors that may lead to the growth of such "ancillary firms", in particular the relative size of the product market as compared with the extent of scale economies. In the same vein, pertinent factors for determining the make-or-buy decisions by assembly firms are discussed and evaluated. Creation-Date: 1980-05 Publication-Status: Published as UPSE Discussion Paper No. 1980-06, May 1980 Number: 198006 Handle: RePEc:phs:dpaper:198006 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Alejandro H. Herrin Author-Name-First: Alejandro Author-Name-Last: Herrin Author-Workplace-Name: School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman Title: Population and Development Research in the Philippines: A Survey Abstract: A review of social science research on population and development in the Philippines reveals that we know more about fertility levels, less on migration and much less so on mortality; and generally, in each of the variables, we know more about trends at the national level than at the sub-national level and among social groups. Studies that examined the impact of rapid population growth at the national level point to the adverse effects of such growth on per capita income, employment, and the provision of basic services such as education and health. However, these did not study the actual consequences of demographic trends, rather these consequences were inferred from the results of simulation exercises using economic demographic models of different specifications. A new generation of consequence studies seem to be needed, namely those that would determine who are the most adversely affected by demographic trends, what are their characteristic, and where are they located. Such information could help formulate policies and programs geared directly towards specific population groups. With respect to the determinants of demographic trends, the studies reviewed suggest potential relationships among demographic variables, e.g., differential migration patterns can have significant impact on nuptiality patterns and therefore on fertility. In addition, the studies reviewed suggest that changes in the values of the non-demographic areas of concern chould have discernible impact on demographic trends: with respect to fertility, through changes in education and health, as well as through female employment via its effects on the age at marriage, with respect to migration, through availability of employment opportunities and access to education services; and finally, with respect to mortality, through improved health and nutrition services and improved environmental sanitation. Hence, policies and programs that affect these areas of concern could have significant impact on the demographic variables. What is not precisely known, however is (a) the quantitative extent and the specific mechanisms through which these policies and programs affect these areas of concern; and (b) through what specific mechanisms and to what quantitative extent do changes in these broad non-demographic areas of concern in turn affect the demographic variables. These types of information are critical in the optimal design of policies and programs that address the non-demographic and demographic objectives. Creation-Date: 1980-06 Publication-Status: Published as UPSE Discussion Paper No. 1980-07, June 1980 Number: 198007 Handle: RePEc:phs:dpaper:198007 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Edita A. Tan Author-Name-First: Edita Author-Name-Last: Tan Author-Workplace-Name: School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman Author-Name: Wannasiri Naiyavitit Author-Name-First: Wannasiri Author-Name-Last: Naiyavitit Title: Distribution Flow of Education in Thailand Abstract: The paper investigates the degree of inequality of distribution of formal schooling in Thailand and how it intensifies as we move up to schooling ladder. It applies a constrained capital optimization model to explain the degree and movement of inequality. It shows how financial constraints on education choices result in an unequal distribution of choice sets facing the school-age children coming from different socio-economic and location classes. Location, particularly rural-urban categories, is found to exert the strongest influence on schooling attainment. This is shown in cross-tabulations and tests of the model. The model is tested by logit method using cross-sections of individual observations from the National Statistical Office 1975 Survey of Youth from which we obtained values of probability of school attendance in lower elementary, upper elementary, high school and post high school. For "worst-off" children whose fathers had the lowest income, lowest education, the most number of brothers and sister, living in the rural Northeastern region, the respective probabilities were .71, .53, .14 and .20. The corresponding figures for the "best-off" children whose fathers had B100,00 income and post-secondary education, who had only one brother/sister and who lived in Bangkok were .98, .99, .97 and .56. The paper also gives the inter-generational link in education capital from the coefficients of father's education and income. The distribution of education may be predicted by the model for any given distribution of children by socio-economic and location variables. Creation-Date: 1980-07 Publication-Status: Published as UPSE Discussion Paper No. 1980-08, July 1980 Number: 198008 Handle: RePEc:phs:dpaper:198008 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Dante B. Canlas Author-Name-First: Dante Author-Name-Last: Canlas Title: Output Productivity and Earnings : The Informal Manufacturing Sector in the Greater Manila Area Abstract: A sketch of the informal imanufacturing sector in the Greater Manila area is presented using nformation drawn from a 1976 sample survey of informal enterprises. Estimates of regression models designed to explain variations in output and value added of enterprises and earnings of enterprise head show the insignificance of human capital-related variables. Low quality of workers and production techniques interact to produce low output and wages trapping workers in poverty and underemployment: A possible public policy measure is retraining these workers for more productive jobs in the formal sector. Creation-Date: 1980-08 Publication-Status: Published as UPSE Discussion Paper No. 1980-09, August 1980 Number: 198009 Handle: RePEc:phs:dpaper:198009 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Charles W. Lindsey Author-Name-First: Charles Author-Name-Last: Lindsey Title: Lenin's Theory of Imperialism Abstract: Lenin's theory of imperialism is the basis of much contemporarily analysis of the interaction between third world and advanced capitalist countries. This paper examines the theoretical coherence of his theory. In Imperialism, Lenin interwove two theories -- a theory of monopoly and a theory of imperialism. He attempted to prove that the rise of monopoly changed the relationship between the advanced capitalist nations and the rest of the world, as well as qualitatively altering the nature of capitalism within the advanced countries themselves. We argue that he succeeded in the latter, but not in the former. The attempt to equate imperialism and monopoly is untenable. Creation-Date: 1980-10 Publication-Status: Published as UPSE Discussion Paper No. 1980-10, October 1980 Number: 198010 Handle: RePEc:phs:dpaper:198010 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Cayetano W. Paderanga, Jr. Author-Name-First: Cayetano Author-Name-Last: Paderanga, Jr. Author-Workplace-Name: School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman Title: Racial Preferences and Housing Prices Abstract: This paper studies and tests a hypothesis about how racial preferences influence the choice of urban residential location. The hypothesis implies a pattern of housing prices which lead to racial segregation. Data from San Mateo Country, California is used in the study. Utilizing the technique of hedonic price index estimation, the paper concludes that the empirical results are consistent with the hypothesis of racial preferences by households which ultimately result in racial segregation. Creation-Date: 1980-11 Publication-Status: Published as UPSE Discussion Paper No. 1980-11, November 1980 Number: 198011 Handle: RePEc:phs:dpaper:198011 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Florian A. Alburo Author-Name-First: Florian Author-Name-Last: Alburo Author-Workplace-Name: School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman Title: Comparative Agricultural Modernization and Non-Farm Employment Abstract: This paper reports on the non-farm employment aspects of two agricultural towns considered to be at varying stages of agricultural modernization. It is found that non-farm employment increases with the pace of agricultural modernization. At the middle stages of modernity, employment decreases before it increases again. In the same vein, party-time employment in non-farm enterprises decreases. Implications of the findings on factor proportions, program management, and general policy are spelled out in the context of experiences found in other countries. Creation-Date: 1980-12 Publication-Status: Published as UPSE Discussion Paper No. 1980-12, December 1980 Number: 198012 Handle: RePEc:phs:dpaper:198012 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Ernesto M. Pernia Author-Name-First: Ernesto Author-Name-Last: Pernia Author-Workplace-Name: School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman Title: A Note on Migration and Fertility Abstract: Most studies on internal migration and fertility conclude that migration leads to lower fertility. This phenomenon is opened explained in the context of the social mobility and assimilation models. But there are other studies that report conflicting results. This note proposes an alternative model that may reconcile the conflicts. A "migration cycle" posits a non-linear migration-fertility relationship whereby fertility falls on account of economic and psychic hardships caused by displacement following migration, and then rises during the period of adjustment, as child bearing becomes easier. It may only be in the long run, with further improvements in income and education and fuller assimilation into the new environment, when a sustained fertility declined can be expected. The model is borne out by Philippine data form the 1973 NDS. It would seem then that, after a temporarily alleviating the fertility problem, migration tends to aggravate it. What this implies for policy is to quicken the period of adjustment for migrants so that sustained fertility decline can occur sooner than otherwise. The implication for research is to test the model with longitudinal data and with data on other countries as well. Creation-Date: 1980-12 Publication-Status: Published as UPSE Discussion Paper No. 1980-13, December 1980 Number: 198013 Handle: RePEc:phs:dpaper:198013