Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Arsenio M. Balisacan Author-Name-First: Arsenio Author-Name-Last: Balisacan Author-Workplace-Name: School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman Title: Agricultural Growth, Landlessness, Off-Farm Employment, and Rural Poverty in the Philippines Abstract: Rapid agricultural growth has been suggested as an alternative development strategy for less-developed countries. The paper shows that rapid agricultural growth, as demonstrated by the Philippine experience in the 1960s and 1970s, is not enough to pull the rural poor out of poverty. Economic structures and the economic policy environment must likewise have to be conducive to a rapid growth of productive employment opportunities, particularly in the nonagricultural sector, for the fast growing labor force. The paper also provides a consistent set of poverty estimates which are used to reinterpret (or question) a number of commonplace claims in the Philippine development literature concerning the association between economic growth, income distribution, and poverty as well as the characteristics of the rural poor. Creation-Date: 1991-01 Publication-Status: Published as UPSE Discussion Paper No. DP 1991-01, January 1991 Number: 199101 Handle: RePEc:phs:dpaper:199101 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Jose Encarnacion, Jr. Author-Name-First: Jose Author-Name-Last: Encarnacion, Jr. Author-Workplace-Name: School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman Title: Aggregate Supply : A Reformulation Abstract: This paper proposes an aggregate supply function based on monopolistically competitive firms without assuming a Phillips curve relation. With aggregate demand the resulting framework can accommodate Phillips curves, stagflation, and procyclical real wages. There is a range of potential full-employment output levels, and interestingly, from unemployment equilibrium it may be possible to reach full employment with a higher real wage. Creation-Date: 1991-02 Publication-Status: Published as UPSE Discussion Paper No. 1991-02, February 1991 Number: 199102 Handle: RePEc:phs:dpaper:199102 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Emmanuel F. Esguerra Author-Name-First: Emmanuel Author-Name-Last: Esguerra Author-Workplace-Name: School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman Author-Name: Raul V. Fabella Author-Name-First: Raul Author-Name-Last: Fabella Author-Workplace-Name: School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman Title: Screening and Loan Determination by Trader-Lenders in the Rural LDC Abstract: We model the lending behavior of rural traders in a linked credit-output transaction. The likelihood of credit involvement with a trader rises with farm area, with the combination of enforceability of repayment and demand elasticity and with the likelihood of procurement of marketable surplus by the trader. Loans granted to farmers rise with farm area and the presence of output tying. Data from the Philippines support these claims. Creation-Date: 1991-03 Publication-Status: Published as UPSE Discussion Paper No. 1991-03, March 1991 Number: 199103 Handle: RePEc:phs:dpaper:199103 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Florian A. Alburo Author-Name-First: Florian Author-Name-Last: Alburo Author-Workplace-Name: School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman Title: Sustaining Trade Liberalization and Reforms in the Philippines Creation-Date: 1991-04 Publication-Status: Published as UPSE Discussion Paper No. 1991-04, April 1991 Number: 199104 Handle: RePEc:phs:dpaper:199104 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Arsenio M. Balisacan Author-Name-First: Arsenio Author-Name-Last: Balisacan Author-Workplace-Name: School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman Title: Anatomy of Rural Household Welfare: The Philippines Abstract: The paper provides a consistent set of estimates of poverty incidence in the Philippines, investigates the determinants of rural household welfare, and explores empirically an important aspect of the so-called poverty targeting problem. Regression techniques are employed to explain (i) regional differences in rural poverty incidence and (ii) the variation in rural household welfare. The regression results are used to reinterpret (or question) a number of commonplace claims concerning the character of rural poverty in the Philippines. Poverty targeting is fraught with informational problem: The poor are not easily identifiable and the cost of targeting may be quite high. In addressing this issue, the paper applies a simple computational procedure to national survey data of family incomes and expenditures. The question asked is: Given a fixed amount of money available for transfers, which particular target group in the Philippines should be the focus of attention for a maximum reduction in rural poverty? The results of the exercise offer useful insights for poverty alleviation policies. Creation-Date: 1991-04 Publication-Status: Published as UPSE Discussion Paper No. 1991-05, April 1991 Number: 199105 Handle: RePEc:phs:dpaper:199105 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Florian A. Alburo Author-Name-First: Florian Author-Name-Last: Alburo Author-Workplace-Name: School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman Title: Towards a More Open Philippines : Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy Abstract: The Philippines has never had a structural experience in export development. Instead of fully departing from protection and import-substitution, export policies were placed on top of existing biases and the country ended up achieving neither export-orientation nor efficient import-substitution. The paper explores two major forces to export promotion. One is exhange rate. It is argued that it is a policy tool available in active export promotion. The experiences of other countries (to which the Philippines has been historically comparable) show how important exchange rate has been. The other is monetary policy. Access to domestic and foreign credits, cost of money and financing availability for exporters are discussed. It is argued that exports should be allowed access to financing from global financial markets. There is something to be said for an Exim-bank for the Philippines whose special effort is putting to bear its resources-financial, technical - into export development. Some policy actions are suggested. Creation-Date: 1991-05 Publication-Status: Published as UPSE Discussion Paper No. 1991-06, May 1991 Number: 199106 Handle: RePEc:phs:dpaper:199106 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Edita A. Tan Author-Name-First: Edita Author-Name-Last: Tan Author-Workplace-Name: School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman Title: Overseas Employment, Savings Rate and Income Distribution: The Philippine Case Abstract: The first part of the paper gives a brief history of labor emigration; it also explains the Filipino's relatively high propensity to migrate by the country's colonial experience and the flexibility of its labor market. It then applies the life cycle consumption theory to families who receive income from abroad. Foreign employment is generally of short duration and results in a bulge in the overseas workers' income path. A higher saving rate from overseas income is expected. This hypothesis is tested using the 1988 Family Income and Expenditure Survey. It is further found that overseas employment has improved income distribution since the large majority of the migrant workers come from the lower income groups. Creation-Date: 1991-06 Publication-Status: Published as UPSE Discussion Paper No. 1991-07, June 1991 Number: 199107 Handle: RePEc:phs:dpaper:199107 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Fidelina B. Natividad-Carlos Author-Name-First: Fidelina Author-Name-Last: Natividad-Carlos Author-Workplace-Name: School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman Title: The Effects of Devaluation : A Review of Theory Abstract: This paper reviews the literature on the theory of devaluation. The various approaches to the analysis of devaluation that are discussed in the paper are complementary and represent different views of the same phenomenon. Thus, in analyzing the effects of devaluation, one must use a combination of several approaches. In addition, one must take into account the issues pertaining to the distributional effects, the pessimistic consequences, and the effectiveness of devaluation. Creation-Date: 1991-07 Publication-Status: Published as UPSE Discussion Paper No. 1991-08, July 1991 Number: 199108 Handle: RePEc:phs:dpaper:199108 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Fidelina B. Natividad-Carlos Author-Name-First: Fidelina Author-Name-Last: Natividad-Carlos Author-Workplace-Name: School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman Title: Exchange Rate Assessment : A Review of Concepts and Indicators Abstract: Real exchange rate volatility and real exchange rate misalignment have welfare costs: they generate incorrect signals that can misallocate resources and reduce economic efficiency. It is difficult to determine, both theoretically and practically, whether a country’s real exchange rate is misaligned. However, there are several indicators- exchange rate indices, relative price index, elasticities, commodity-specific analysis, parallel market exchange rate, and regression residuals- that can be used in assessing the appropriateness of the prevailing exchange rate. The objective of this paper is to review the concept of misalignment and the different indicators used in exchange rate assessment. Creation-Date: 1991-08 Publication-Status: Published as UPSE Discussion Paper No. 1991-09, August 1991 Number: 199109 Handle: RePEc:phs:dpaper:199109 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Edita A. Tan Author-Name-First: Edita Author-Name-Last: Tan Author-Workplace-Name: School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman Title: Interlocking Directorates Commercial Banks, Other Financial Institutions and NonFinancial Corporations Abstract: The paper documents the interlocking directories of banks with other financial and nonfinancial firms which belong to the top 1,000 corporations in the Philippines. Within the interlocked group of firms are the large conglomerates of leading families. Additionally there is interlocking within the major banks. The paper argues that interlocking is an innovation for obtaining rent or privileges that were created by policies. Interlocking facilitates the lobbying process. This possibly explains the difficulty of implementing structural reforms in the country. Creation-Date: 1991-08 Publication-Status: Published as UPSE Discussion Paper No. 1991-10, August 1991 Number: 199110 Handle: RePEc:phs:dpaper:199110 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Rolando A. Danao Author-Name-First: Rolando Author-Name-Last: Danao Author-Workplace-Name: School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman Title: A Top-Down Multiregional Econometric Model of the Philippines Abstract: This paper presents the results of the estimation and historical simulation of a system of top-down regional econometric models for the regions of the Philippines. The structure of the model ensures that the regional forecasts will be consistent with the national forecasts. The dynamic historical simulations show that the predicted values of the national variables track their actual values quite well. Creation-Date: 1991-09 Publication-Status: Published as UPSE Discussion Paper No. 1991-11, September 1991 Number: 199111 Handle: RePEc:phs:dpaper:199111 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Raul V. Fabella Author-Name-First: Raul Author-Name-Last: Fabella Author-Workplace-Name: School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman Title: Generalized Sharing Scheme in Teams Abstract: We show that the Generalized Sharing Scheme which is exhaustive, allows a team of identical members voluntarily supplying observable effort to attain Pareto efficient production under increasing returns provided team size is allowed to vary. Creation-Date: 1991-10 Publication-Status: Published as UPSE Discussion Paper No. 1991-12, October 1991 Number: 199112 Handle: RePEc:phs:dpaper:199112 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Raul V. Fabella Author-Name-First: Raul Author-Name-Last: Fabella Author-Workplace-Name: School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman Title: Foreign Borrowing and the Generalized Real Exchange Rate Abstract: We propose a formula (the generalized real exchange rate) that reflects better the real price of the real dollar when the economy is financing trade deficits by foreign borrowing. Creation-Date: 1991-11 Publication-Status: Published as UPSE Discussion Paper No. 1991-13, November 1991 Number: 199113 Handle: RePEc:phs:dpaper:199113 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Raul V. Fabella Author-Name-First: Raul Author-Name-Last: Fabella Author-Workplace-Name: School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman Title: Rotten Kid Transfers and Pareto Efficiency in Nonsymmetric Teams Abstract: We show that there is an exhaustive sharing scheme involving "rotten kid transfers" that allow Pareto efficiency in nonsymmetric teams where at least one member is team-spirited. The optimal "rotten kid transfers" from team-spirited members required to keep self-interested members from shirking are determined. If the affordability condition is satisfied, the optimal "rotten kid transfers" induce Pareto efficiency in teams. Creation-Date: 1991-11 Publication-Status: Published as UPSE Discussion Paper No. 1991-14, November 1991 Number: 199114 Handle: RePEc:phs:dpaper:199114 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Carlos C. Bautista Author-Name-First: Carlos Author-Name-Last: Bautista Title: Sources and Variability of Inflation in an Open Economy Abstract: This paper presents an empirical analysis of inflation in an open economy. Using Philippine data, the paper first estimates the variance of inflation using a standard ARCH model and shows that periods of high inflation are succeeded by periods of high volatility. Next, the sources of inflation are analyzed using a macroeconomic vector autoregression model. The variance decomposition attempts to determine whether the fiscal view or the BOP view of inflation holds for the Philippines. It is shown that the BOP view holds but this result is not sufficient to say that the former is unimportant in the inflation process. Creation-Date: 1991-12 Publication-Status: Published as UPSE Discussion Paper No. 1991-15, December 1991 Number: 199115 Handle: RePEc:phs:dpaper:199115 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Carlos C. Bautista Author-Name-First: Carlos Author-Name-Last: Bautista Title: Multi-Market Effects of Exchange Rate Adjustment on Agriculture : The Case of the Philippines Abstract: This paper presents an analysis of the impact of a devaluation of the Philippine agricultural markets using a multi-market model. The modeling technique is described and distinguished from partial and general equilibrium methods of analysis. The simulation results show that agricultural markets respond to a devaluation depending on their trade orientation and their linkages with each other. It is also shown that rural real incomes improve with a devaluation because of the income generation effects of price changes and rising export earnings. A more favorable result is obtained when devaluation is accompanied by a fertilizer subsidy. Creation-Date: 1991-12 Publication-Status: Published as UPSE Discussion Paper No. 1991-16, December 1991 Number: 199116 Handle: RePEc:phs:dpaper:199116