Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Cayetano W. Paderanga, Jr. Author-Name-First: Cayetano, Jr. Author-Name-Last: Paderanga Author-Workplace-Name: School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman Title: Building Bureaucratic Capability in the Philippines Abstract: This paper reviews the importance of governance to a developing country like the Philippines. It looks into the role of bureaucratic efficiency in improved governance. Analyzing features of the Philippine bureaucracy, it identifies some organizational aspects which lead to inefficiency. Among those studied are the effect of the criminal justice system on bureaucratic behavior and the cost of slow project implementation. Creation-Date: 1996-01 Publication-Status: Published as UPSE Discussion Paper No. 1996-01, January 1996 Number: 199601 Handle: RePEc:phs:dpaper:199601 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Jose Encarnacion, Jr. Author-Name-First: Jose, Jr. Author-Name-Last: Encarnacion Author-Workplace-Name: School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman Title: Aggregate Demand and Supply Reconsidered Abstract: This paper defines an aggregate demand function based on portfolio balance with three assets (money, bonds and equities) and an aggregate supply function based on the supply behavior of a representative price-setting firm. The money wage is endogenous but the usual result is a short-period unemployment equilibrium. The model provides explanations of Phillips curve, stagflation and procyclical real wage phenomena. It also allows for the possibility of a continuum of full-employment equilibria. Creation-Date: 1996-02 Publication-Status: Published as UPSE Discussion Paper No. 1996-02, February 1996 Number: 199602 Handle: RePEc:phs:dpaper:199602 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Cayetano W. Paderanga, Jr. Author-Name-First: Cayetano, Jr. Author-Name-Last: Paderanga Author-Workplace-Name: School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman Author-Name: Jose Antonio Tan III Author-Name-First: Jose Antonio III Author-Name-Last: Tan Title: Lags in Monetory Policy in the Philippines Abstract: Friedman(1960-1963), using his and Anna Schwartz's study of monetary movements and the business cycles studied by the National Bureau of Economic Reseach (NBER) concluded that "monetary changes have their effect only after a considerable lag and over a long period and that the lag is rather variable (Friedman,1960)." This paper studies whether such proposition holds for Philippines by examining the optimal length of monetary policy lags in the Philippine economy. A polynomial distributed lag structure is specified for M3 to arrive at estimates for the lagged effects of money on prices, output and interest rates. For the Philippines, the optimal lag length of the effect of M3 on consumer prices is found to be 6 months. The lagged effects of M3 on nominal GDP, real GDP and the 91-day Treasury Bill rate are estimated to be 4 quarters, 9 quarters and 5 months, respectively. Creation-Date: 1996-03 Publication-Status: Published as UPSE Discussion Paper No. 1996-03, March 1996 Number: 199603 Handle: RePEc:phs:dpaper:199603 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Frank M. Little Author-Name-First: Frank Author-Name-Last: Little Title: Economic Growth Theory: A Tail of Two Paradigms Abstract: This paper outlines the conceptual problem, which lies behind the research program, "Technological Change as a Determinant of Sustainable Growth: A Case Study of the Philippines" currently being undertaken by the author at the School of Economics. It shows how current growth theory tends to tail or follow two quite distinct physics models - one of thermodynamic equilibrium the other of non or rather far-from-equilibrium thermodynamics. These perceptions of growth are dramatically different, the first seeing changes in industry structure as one of the epiphenomena of growth and not central to it. The second model sees such structural change as central to the process of growth; indeed growth itself is held to emanate from structural changes which in turn is the outcome of technological change. The apparent contradictions in these alternative perceptions of growth are ignored in practice, both being used simultaneously to measure structural change within an economy. By examining an economy which although showing a quite reasonable rate of growth in the 50s 60s and 70s but nevertheless has shown an extremely low rate of productivity increase, it is hoped to cast some light on which of these perceptions of growth appears to be the more meaningful. Creation-Date: 1996-04 Publication-Status: Published as UPSE Discussion Paper No. 1996-04, April 1996 Number: 199604 Handle: RePEc:phs:dpaper:199604 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Panfila S. Ching Author-Name-First: Panfila Author-Name-Last: Ching Author-Name: Fidelina Natividad Carlos Author-Name-First: Fidelina Author-Name-Last: Carlos Author-Workplace-Name: School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman Title: The Choice of Adult Health Care Provider and Access Across Income Groups: The Philippine Case Abstract: This paper investigates the demand for adult health care in the Phiippines using a theoretical model that implies a natural interrelation between price and income. The demand function takes on a conditional/mixed logit (CLGT) form. The CLGT model is estimated using country-wide data from the 1981 National Health Survey, which has information on price that is collected contemporaneously with the rest of the variables. The results show that price and income do affect the demand for adult health care and that poor adults are more sensitive to price changes than rich adults. The implication is that user fees are regressive and hence would affect adversely the access of adults to health care. Creation-Date: 1996-05 Publication-Status: Published as UPSE Discussion Paper No. 1996-05, May 1996 Number: 199605 Handle: RePEc:phs:dpaper:199605 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Fidelina Natividad Carlos Author-Name-First: Fidelina Author-Name-Last: Carlos Author-Workplace-Name: School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman Title: On Sluggish Output and Exchange Rate Dynamics Once Again Abstract: This paper examines a model of exchange rate dynamics which incorporates sluggish output adjustment into the Dornbusch variable output model. In this model where both the price level and output cannot jump, the interest rate must decline in response to a monetary expansion so as to maintain money market equilibrium. As the interest rate declines, because of uncovered interest rate parity, there must be an expectation of a subsequent appreciation. However, the exchange rate need not necessarily overshoot initially and yet an expectation of a subsequent appreciation is created because expectations depend not only on the initial exchange rate deviation, as in the Dornbursch model, but also on the initial price deviation and these two deviations are now different sources of information for rational speculators. Furthermore, by explicitly deriving the time paths of the exchange rate and other variables, it is shown that indeed, consistent with perfect foresight, whatever is the initial exchange rate response, such is subsequently followed by actual appreciation. Creation-Date: 1996-06 Publication-Status: Published as UPSE Discussion Paper No. 1996-06, June 1996 Number: 199606 Handle: RePEc:phs:dpaper:199606 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Rolando A. Danao Author-Name-First: Rolando Author-Name-Last: Danao Author-Workplace-Name: School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman Title: A Note on the Parametric Linear Complementarity Problem Abstract: Consider the parametric linear complementarily problem, w = Mz + q + ¦Ëp, w ¡Ý 0, z ¡Ý 0, where p ¡Ù 0, 0 ¡Ù q ¡Ý 0, and ¦Ë ¡Ý 0. We show that a necessary condition for every complementary map z(¦Ë) to be isotone for every nonzero q ¡Ý 0 and every p is that M be either a P-matrix or P1*-matrix (M є P1*iff M є P1Q and det(M) = 0). Cottle's necessary and sufficient conditions for strong and uniform isotonicity for P-matrices are restated for P1*-matrices. Creation-Date: 1996-07 Publication-Status: Published as UPSE Discussion Paper No. 1996-07, July 1996 Number: 199607 Handle: RePEc:phs:dpaper:199607 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Cayetano W. Paderanga, Jr. Author-Name-First: Cayetano, Jr. Author-Name-Last: Paderanga Author-Workplace-Name: School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman Title: Economic Interdependence and Macroeconomic Coordination Abstract: In a world rapidly becoming more economically integrated the spill-over effects of policies and actions on other countries have become very substantial. The issue of how policies can be coordinated in order to minimize the negative externalities has arisen. This paper reviews the record of various form of policy coordination. It explores the various aspects of constrained decentralized policy making and various levels of policy coordination. The gains and costs are discussed and some suggestions for Philippine policy making are given. Creation-Date: 1996-08 Publication-Status: Published as UPSE Discussion Paper No. 1996-08, August 1996 Number: 199608 Handle: RePEc:phs:dpaper:199608 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Ma. Claret M. Mapalad Author-Name-First: Ma. Claret Author-Name-Last: Mapalad Title: The Causal Relation Between Foreign and Domestic Savings in Four Southeast Asian Economies Abstract: The empirical basis of the thesis that foreign savings substitute for domestic savings has been inappropriate in establishing what is obviously a causal relation. In this paper, we evaluate the above thesis using a bivariate Granger causality model and annual data on four Southeast Asian economies between 1950/60s and 1992. Our findings present a mixed picture: Foreign savings may leave domestic savings unaffected or cause it to rise or fall. We also found that the causal relation can be reverse, implying that foreign savings cannot be presumed exogenous. Creation-Date: 1996-09 Publication-Status: Published as UPSE Discussion Paper No. 1996-09, September 1996 Number: 199609 Handle: RePEc:phs:dpaper:199609 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Arsenio M. Balisacan Author-Name-First: Arsenio Author-Name-Last: Balisacan Author-Workplace-Name: School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman Title: Rural Growth, Food Security, and Poverty Alleviation in Developing Asian Countries Abstract: While agricultural growth has been recognized as the key to poverty alleviation in most developing countries, recent experience suggests that this is often not enough. The alleviation of rural food insecurity and poverty hinges critically on the responce of rural nonfarm areas to the stimulus provided by this growth as well as by nonfarm (urban, export) demand growth. Using recent theoretical ideas and Asian experiences, the paper illustrates the influence of initial conditions-size distribution of incomes and physical assets, state of rural infrastructure and human capital, and macroeconomic political environment-in shaping this responce and hense rural welfare outcomes. Creation-Date: 1996-10 Publication-Status: Published as UPSE Discussion Paper No.1996-10, October 1996 Number: 199610 Handle: RePEc:phs:dpaper:199610