Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Ma. Claret Mapalad Author-Name-First: Ma. Claret Author-Name-Last: Mapalad Author-Name: Emmanuel S. de Dios Author-Name-First: Emmanuel Author-Name-Last: de Dios Author-Workplace-Name: School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman Title: Could a Common Currency Have Prevented the Asian Crisis? Abstract: Recently currency instability and its economic and social consequences prompt the question whether and to what extent a common currency could have served to prevent or meliorate the Asian crisis. This paper examines the advantages and costs of such a proposal, using the experience and institutions of European monetary union as a starting point. It concludes that while the technical economic obstacles are not insurmountable, the political and social factors presupposed in a union are more important in explaining the region?s lukewarm reception of the proposal. Creation-Date: 1999-01 Publication-Status: Published as UPSE Discussion Paper No.1999-01, January 1999 Number: 199901 Handle: RePEc:phs:dpaper:199901 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Gerardo P. Sicat Author-Name-First: Gerardo Author-Name-Last: Sicat Author-Workplace-Name: School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman Title: The Philippine Economy in the Asian Crisis Abstract: The Philippine has avoided the worst consequences of a full-scale crisis because it had strong economic fundamentals, including a reformed financial sector at the onset of the regional crisis. This paper gives an account of the response of the Philippines to the baht collapse. The peso was floated shortly after the baht currency crisis. One year later, the Philippine economy was still in relatively good shape, but growth was slowing down and there was concern about the consequences for the Philippines if the contagion spreads beyond Asia. The new Estrada Government stressed the need for further stringent budget cuts. The stock market continued to decline. The liberalization programme was kept in place, inflation remained moderate, and exports continued to show strong growth. However, the economy remains vulnerable if the crisis continues much longer. Creation-Date: 1999-02 Publication-Status: Published as UPSE Discussion Paper No.1999-02, February 1999 Number: 199902 Handle: RePEc:phs:dpaper:199902 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Michael Alba Author-Name-First: Michael Author-Name-Last: Alba Author-Workplace-Name: School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman Author-Name: Emmanuel F. Esguerra Author-Name-First: Emmanuel Author-Name-Last: Esguerra Author-Workplace-Name: School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman Title: Estimating the Modes of Labor Force Participation in the Philippines Abstract: This study explores the correlates of various modes of labor force participation in the Philippines. Data from the Labor Force Survey of the third quarter of 1994 and the Family Income and Expenditures Survey of the same year are used to estimate the parameters of a mixed logit model in which potential income, a function of wage offers, constitutes the conditional variable and socioeconomic and demographic characteristics are the multinomial variables. The results suggest that (a) the probability of a worker?s being in a particular mode of labor force participation is a concave function of potential income in that mode, (b) unmarried male workers are the least likely to be fully employed, (c) years spent in high school and college increase both the probability of unemployed and of full employment, (d) the presence of elderly household members has a negative impact on the probabilities of invisible underemployment and full employment and a positive impact on the probabilities of unemployment and visible underemployment, and (e) in general, workers who reside outside of the National Capital Region have higher probabilities of unemployment and underemployment and lower probabilities of full employment. Creation-Date: 1999-03 Publication-Status: Published as UPSE Discussion Paper No.1999-03, March 1999 Number: 199903 Handle: RePEc:phs:dpaper:199903 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Francis M. Little Author-Name-First: Francis Author-Name-Last: Little Title: Technological Change and Industry Structure in the Philippines: 1969-1985 Abstract: The paper outlines the results of Stage I of the research program into The Relationship between Technological Change and Economic Development: A Case Study of the Philippines: Part I of this paper outlines the analytical framework adopted for the analysis which focuses upon changes in the vector of technical coefficients derived from the Philippines? I-O tables for 1969-1985 relating the observed pattern of change to one of the ?stylized facts? of economic development- the increasing roundaboutness of production. The results of the analysis suggest that over this period, the changes in the technical coefficients were largely inconsistent with that standard of development. It is suggested that this outcome is largely the result of weak organizational and technical skills at the level of the firm which then manifest themselves in inappropriate responses to changes in the level of activity- particularly apparent in the case of manufacturing industries. By highlighting the interdependence between production processes it is possible to determine where weak development in one sector- such as food processing - in inhibiting the development of others - such as agriculture. A major problem stressed with the current policy of improving agricultural productivity is the lack of a reasonably up-to-date I-O table from which problems associated with that interdependence can be gauged. Creation-Date: 1999-04 Publication-Status: Published as UPSE Discussion Paper No.1999-04, April 1999 Number: 199904 Handle: RePEc:phs:dpaper:199904 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Emmanuel S. de Dios Author-Name-First: Emmanuel Author-Name-Last: de Dios Author-Workplace-Name: School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman Title: Economic Ideas During the Malolos Congress Abstract: While much has been written about the political ideas of the revolution, little if anything has been written about these economic ideas. The paper is an attempt to provide an intellectual background to the economic policies and directives emanating from the Malolos Republic. It traces the source of the revolution?s economics cameralist ideas, as handed down by liberal Spanish thinkers and practical policy reformers. It documents these influences in the revolution?s policies towards public finance in general. Personal taxation, trade, and the important agrarian question. Creation-Date: 1999-05 Publication-Status: Published as UPSE Discussion Paper No. 1999-05, May 1999 Number: 199905 Handle: RePEc:phs:dpaper:199905 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Yoshiko Nagano Author-Name-First: Yoshiko Author-Name-Last: Nagano Title: Philippine Colonial Banking During American Period Abstract: This paper attempts to depict the general features of the structure of the banking sector in the Philippines during the American period. First, it illustrate how the banking institutions, either private or governmental (semi-governmental), existed in the Philippine economy during the American period. Second, it discusses how their activities were carried out during the American colonial period. Third, it shows what kind of relations the banking sector had with various production sectors at that time. Creation-Date: 1999-06 Publication-Status: Published as UPSE Discussion Paper No.1999-06, June 1999 Number: 199906 Handle: RePEc:phs:dpaper:199906 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Gerardo P. Sicat Author-Name-First: Gerardo Author-Name-Last: Sicat Author-Workplace-Name: School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman Title: Economic Cooperation in ASEAN Accelerates: Appreciating Professor Widjojo Abstract: This article is a homage to Professor Widjojo, who celebrated his 70th Birthday anniversary in 1997. The article recounts his important role in ASEAN in Economic Cooperation, during the critical formative years, when the machinery for cooperation was still weak and undefined. The ASEAN Economic Cooperation began to accelerate after the Bali Summit of ASEAN leaders in 1976. The author brings in the perspective of the Philippine participation in these historic meetings, taking into account first hand experience as leader of the Philippine ministerial delegation from 1975 to 1981. Creation-Date: 1999-07 Publication-Status: Published as UPSE Discussion Paper No.1999-07, July 1999 Number: 199907 Handle: RePEc:phs:dpaper:199907 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Orville Solon Author-Name-First: Orville Author-Name-Last: Solon Author-Workplace-Name: School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman Author-Name: Alejandro N. Herrin Author-Name-First: Alejandro Author-Name-Last: Herrin Author-Workplace-Name: School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman Author-Name: Rachel H. Racelis Author-Name-First: Rachel Author-Name-Last: Racelis Author-Name: Marites G. Manalo Author-Name-First: Marites Author-Name-Last: Manalo Author-Name: Virginia N. Ganac Author-Name-First: Virginia Author-Name-Last: Ganac Author-Name: Glenita V. Amoranto Author-Name-First: Glenita Author-Name-Last: Amoranto Title: Health Care Expenditure Patterns in the Philippines: Analysis of National Health Accounts, 1991-1997 Abstract: The analysis of the NHA matrices from 1991 to 1997 reveals four main trends. One, total health expenditures have been increasing in both real and per capita terms. But health and financial indicators suggest that the money have not always been spent wisely. Two, the share of family out-of-pocket spending has declined since 1994 in favor of government expenditures, but it remains the single largest source. This means that the financial burden on individual families remain heavy leaving access to care highly inequitable. Three, the share of expenditures for public health services has increased after 1993, but the bias for personal health services remains high. Public health programs, however, have not been able to effectively absorb increased spending. Despite heavy spending bias for hospitals, quality services remain largely inaccessible especially to the poor. Four, national government spending on health have increased mainly from national budget sources. However, increased spending by the Department of health have mostly been applied to the few hospital facilities it continues to operate. On the other hand, local health spending has increased beyond what was needed to maintain devolved health functions, and spending is focused on public health services, but local efforts remain uncoordinated. A package of interrelated reforms covering the areas public hospitals, priority public health programs, and the national health insurance system is proposed to address issues raised by the main findings. Creation-Date: 1999-08 Publication-Status: Published as UPSE Discussion Paper No.1999-08, August 1999 Number: 199908 Handle: RePEc:phs:dpaper:199908 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Joseph J. Capuno Author-Name-First: Joseph Author-Name-Last: Capuno Author-Workplace-Name: School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman Title: Some Inferences from the Distribution of the Devolved Health Services Abstract: Several proposals are being considered to correct for the mismatch in the allocations of revenues and devolved expenditure responsibilities across local government units (LGUs). In many LGUs, the mismatch has led to reductions in the level of health services under devolution. While compensating LGUs for their cost of devolved health functions (CDHFs) might improve their fiscal status, this may not lead to improvements in the efficiency and equity of health service provision under devolution. The real problem, however, is not simply a mismatch in the distributions of the CDHF and the internal revenue shares. The larger problem concerns the inherent inefficiencies and inequities in the devolved health services and facilities arising from redistributive politics before devolution. Much of the inefficiencies and inequities may persist under devolution since the DOH was largely concerned with the preservation of the existing hospitals referral system when it assigned devolved health functions to LGUs. Some serious problems have since risen: for example, the joint use of devolved health facilities and unequal access of DOH-retained hospitals. These problems undermine the objectives of the decentralization and are likely to persist unless some form of central transfers - more suitable than the internal revenue shares- are devised and a reorientation of the management of the DOH-retained functions and programs is undertaken. Creation-Date: 1999-09 Publication-Status: Published as UPSE Discussion Paper No.1999-09, September 1999 Number: 199909 Handle: RePEc:phs:dpaper:199909 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Joseph J. Capuno Author-Name-First: Joseph Author-Name-Last: Capuno Author-Workplace-Name: School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman Title: The Political Economy of Decentralization: Financing of Health Services in the Philippines Abstract: Like many developing countries, the Philippines has decentralized its public health system. Despite its supposed advantages, however, the decentralization, has not led to widespread improvements in local provision. This is partly because many local government units are found financially inadequate since the current revenue-sharing scheme does not factor in the distribution of the devolved expenditure responsibilities across LGU. Moreover, this particular flaw in the present revenue-sharing scheme has made corrective policy measures more difficult to undertake since it is no longer sufficient to compensate those LGUs originally with financing difficulties. More crucially, it has also become politically necessary to compensate those adversely affected by the corrective policy measure. If only to avoid the added cost of further adjustments, the experience of the Philippines underscores the importance of a well-designed and carefully implemented decentralization program. Creation-Date: 1999-10 Publication-Status: Published as UPSE Discussion Paper No.1999-10, October 1999 Number: 199910 Handle: RePEc:phs:dpaper:199910 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Casimiro V. Miranda Jr. Author-Name-First: Casimiro, Jr. Author-Name-Last: Miranda Author-Workplace-Name: School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman Title: The Economic Travails of Some Less Developed Countries in Asia as the Consequence of Inefficiency Exposed by Globalization: A Theoretical Explanation Abstract: The paper explains theoretically that the present economic problems of less developed countries in Southeast Asia and elsewhere in the world are the direct offspring of the inefficiency of their industries, disabling them to effectively compete in the world market. Globalization simply exposed this inefficiency. The sharp depreciation of these countries? currencies is merely a consequence of such inefficiency. Thus, these countries? problem are not financial in nature but a real sector phenomenon and as such the ?solution? should be trained on the real sector, the study concludes. Creation-Date: 1999-11 Publication-Status: Published as UPSE Discussion Paper No.1999-11, November 1999 Number: 199911 Handle: RePEc:phs:dpaper:199911 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Ma. Claret M. Mapalad Author-Name-First: Ma. Claret Author-Name-Last: Mapalad Title: The Crisis in South Korea Abstract: After its impressive growth in 1960s and 1970s and successful foreign debt management, stabilization and structural adjustment in 1980s, South Korea?s foreign debt crisis in late 1997 was indeed a puzzle. This paper is an attempt to answer this puzzle in Korea?s development experience. First, an analytical framework is used to isolate the nature of the crisis as a transfer or liquidity problem. Then, how domestic and international players interacted to shape events in the 1990s are discussed. The paper points to premature and excessive financial liberalization as the ultimate cause of the 1997 crisis in Korea. Creation-Date: 1999-11 Publication-Status: Published as UPSE Discussion Paper No. 1999-12, November 1999 Number: 199912 Handle: RePEc:phs:dpaper:199912 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Hal Hill Author-Name-First: Hal Author-Name-Last: Hill Title: Indonesia : The Strange and Sudden Death of a Tiger Economy Abstract: Among the East Asian crisis economies, Indonesia has been by far the worst affected. Its economic contraction has been about twice as large as the next most affected economy, Thailand. It is the only crisis economy to experience serious inflation. Its political turmoil and social tension have also obviously been much deeper than elsewhere. Finally, unlike Thailand, the early warning indicators of a looming crisis were much less obvious. This paper seeks to explain why Indonesia crisis has been so much worse than its neighbours. Creation-Date: 1999-11 Publication-Status: Published as UPSE Discussion Paper No. 1999-13, November 1999 Number: 199913 Handle: RePEc:phs:dpaper:199913 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Renato Reside, Jr. Author-Name-First: Renato Author-Name-Last: Reside, Jr. Author-Workplace-Name: School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman Title: Estimating the Philippine Government's Exposure to the Risk from Contingent Liabilities in Infrastructure Projects Abstract: In its desire for closure in critical infrastructure projects undertaken by the private sector, the Philippine government has routinely assumed various risks by way of guarantees. These guarantees not only relate to core guarantees, such as foreign exchange and legal risks, but also to non-core guarantees associated with infrastructure projects, such as market and construction risks. This papers argues that the present practice of estimating, monitoring and accounting for government exposure and assumption of risk severely understates the true exposure and risk arising from the unfettered provision of guarantees. Alternative modalities for estimating exposure and risk are initially proposed, and these are drawn from applications in the financial sector. Nevertheless, further refinements in techniques and methods are needed. Creation-Date: 1999-12 Publication-Status: Published as UPSE Discussion Paper No. 1999-14, December 1999 Number: 199914 Handle: RePEc:phs:dpaper:199914 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Arsenio M. Balisacan Author-Name-First: Arsenio Author-Name-Last: Balisacan Author-Workplace-Name: School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman Title: Reconstructing Poverty Profiles in the Philippines Abstract: If the main objective of poverty measurement is to inform policy choices for reducing absolute poverty across space and over time, then the current practice to poverty comparison falls short of adequately informing those choices. What is known, based on official poverty data, about spatial poverty profiles, as well as poverty changes in recent years, is not quite robust. This paper suggests an alternative, albeit practical, approach to measuring poverty for spatial/subgroup comparison, as well as for performance monitoring purposes. It employs this approach to construct new poverty profiles based on nationwide household surveys covering the late 1990s. Using panel data constructed from these surveys, the paper also examines the influence of pre-crisis living standards and certain household attributes on the impact of, and household responses, to the Asian economic crisis. Creation-Date: 1999-12 Publication-Status: Published as UPSE Discussion Paper No. 1999-15, December 1999 Number: 199915 Handle: RePEc:phs:dpaper:199915