Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Agustin L. Arcenas Author-Name-First: Agustin Author-Name-Last: Arcenas Author-Workplace-Name: School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman Title: Establishing the Link Between Poverty and Changes in Climatic Conditions in the Philippines Abstract: This paper investigates whether changes in climatic conditions significantly contribute to incidence of poverty in the Philippines. Due to the lack of sufficient regional estimates of poverty, this study utilized food cpi data to proxy for poverty level. The relationship between poverty level and food cpi were tested and found to be moving in parallel direction, and hence, could be substituted for each other for this study’s purposes. The relationship between poverty and food prices has also been verified in the literature, as higher food prices is the dominant variable that results in higher poverty levels. The results show that higher agricultural wages as well as extreme climate-influenced shocks such as El Niño and La Niña were significant determinants of poverty. Higher agricultural wage benefits agricultural workers, but the income effect may be small, and that overall, the net effect of is higher food prices that, in turn, exacerbates overall poverty. The negative impact of El Niño and La Niña on food prices (and therefore, poverty level) could be attributed to the consistent and appropriate government response to these weather shocks, which have stabilized supply of food. Government programs to stock up on rice during weather shocks, and the automatic assistance to farmers during calamities, have had the overall effect of neutralizing the potential poverty impacts of climate-related shocks. These are useful insights in carving out a climate-resilient economic development plan, and emphasize the importance of timely and appropriate government action and adaptation programs. Length: 30 pages Creation-Date: 2018-03 Publication-Status: Published as UPSE Discussion Paper No. 2018-01, March 2018 File-URL: https://www.econ.upd.edu.ph/dp/index.php/dp/article/view/1513 File-Format: Application/pdf Number: 201801 Classification-JEL: Q11, Q15, Q18, Q20, Q21, Q54 Keywords: Poverty; El Niño; La Niña; climate change; food inflation Handle: RePEc:phs:dpaper:201801 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Agustin L. Arcenas Author-Name-First: Agustin Author-Name-Last: Arcenas Author-Workplace-Name: School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman Title: Determining the Inflationary Effects of El Niño and La Niña in the Philippines Abstract: This paper investigates whether climate "shocks" (or short-term but sharp changes in climatic conditions), El Niño and La Niña, have significant impacts on inflation in the country. Using regional panel data and information from PAGASA, this study finds that both of these weather shocks have significant effects on the general price level in the Philippines, along with interest rate, foreign exchange, and unemployment rate. Further, the results also indicate that long-term changes in climatic conditions, specifically average temperature and rainfall, do not have any significant impacts on prices. These findings are consistent with the literature that point to the fact that successful adaptation to long-term changes in climatic conditions negates any potential negative impacts to the economy. The study concludes that adaptation must be expanded not only to respond to long-term changes in climatic conditions, but also to short-term but intense changes in temperature and rainfall. Length: 26 pages Creation-Date: 2018-04 Publication-Status: Published as UPSE Discussion Paper No. 2018-02, April 2018 File-URL: https://www.econ.upd.edu.ph/dp/index.php/dp/article/view/1514 File-Format: Application/pdf Number: 201802 Classification-JEL: Q10, Q11, Q54, E00 Keywords: Inflation; El Niño; La Niña; climate change Handle: RePEc:phs:dpaper:201802 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Florian A. Alburo Author-Name-First: Florian Author-Name-Last: Alburo Author-Workplace-Name: School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman Title: On The Emerging Challenges in the Services Industry: Trade and Investment Abstract: The paper examines recent technology enablers as these affect the services sector and are seen to be analogous to developments taking place as Industry 4.0. After briefly summarizing these, we argue that there are important implications to services, particularly their international trade, in terms of challenges to investment, regulation, policy, regional cooperation, and regional agreements, among others. Some of the possible adjustments arising out of these developments are outlined - in the manufacturing sector and in the services (and their trade). Length: 8 pages Creation-Date: 2018-08 Publication-Status: Published as UPSE Discussion Paper No. 2018-03, August 2018 File-URL: https://www.econ.upd.edu.ph/dp/index.php/dp/article/view/1515 File-Format: Application/pdf Number: 201803 Keywords: trade and investment Handle: RePEc:phs:dpaper:201803 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Raul V. Fabella Author-Name-First: Raul Author-Name-Last: Fabella Author-Workplace-Name: School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman Author-Workplace-Name: National Academy of Science and Technology Author-Name: Sarah Lynne S. Daway-Ducanes Author-Name-First: Sarah Lynne Author-Name-Last: Daway-Ducanes Author-Workplace-Name: School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman Title: Federalism and Inclusion in Developing Economies Abstract: Using two-step system-GMM on a panel data of 105 economies over the period 1987-2016, we present formal statistical evidence that Federalism is a strong predictor of greater income inequality in developing economies. It is also a strong predictor of higher poverty incidence and poverty severity on average for all countries. Federalism does not predict lower poverty incidence and severity in developing countries. Thus for a developing economy such as the Philippines, Federalism appears to be a leap from the frying pan into the fire of even greater income inequality and poverty incidence. Length: 19 pages Creation-Date: 2018-09 Publication-Status: Published as UPSE Discussion Paper No. 2018-04, September 2018 File-URL: https://www.econ.upd.edu.ph/dp/index.php/dp/article/view/1517 File-Format: Application/pdf Number: 201804 Classification-JEL: D3, I3, O1 Keywords: federalism, poverty, inequality Handle: RePEc:phs:dpaper:201804 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Florian A. Alburo Author-Name-First: Florian Author-Name-Last: Alburo Author-Workplace-Name: School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman Title: Export Promotion Policy and Economic Growth in the Philippines: A Comparative Context Abstract: The paper examines recent technology enablers as these affect the services sector and are seen to be analogous to developments taking place as Industry 4.0. After briefly summarizing these, we argue that there are important implications to services, particularly their international trade, in terms of challenges to investment, regulation, policy, regional cooperation, and regional agreements, among others. Some of the possible adjustments arising out of these developments are outlined - in the manufacturing sector and in the services (and their trade). Length: 14 pages Creation-Date: 2018-10 Publication-Status: Published as UPSE Discussion Paper No. 2018-05, October 2018 File-URL: https://www.econ.upd.edu.ph/dp/index.php/dp/article/view/1519 File-Format: Application/pdf Number: 201805 Keywords: trade and investment Handle: RePEc:phs:dpaper:201805