Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Karl Jandoc Author-Name-First: Karl Author-Name-Last: Jandoc Author-Workplace-Name: School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman Author-Name: Adrian Mendoza Author-Name-First: Adrian Author-Name-Last: Mendoza Author-Workplace-Name: School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman Author-Name: Stella Luz Quimbo Author-Name-First: Stella Luz Author-Name-Last: Quimbo Author-Workplace-Name: House of Repsesentatives, Batasan Complex, Constitution Hills, Quezon City Title: Vulnerable to the Virus: Globally-Oriented Manufacturing Firms at Risk From the Spread of COVID-19 Abstract: We use a unique Philippine firm-level database consisting of trade transactions data merged with firm surveys of manufacturing establishments covering the period from 2013 to 2019 to examine which exporting and importing firms are potentially vulnerable to the economic slowdown brought about by the spread of COVID-19. We find that the exposure of Philippine trade to the COVID-19 affected countries is substantial, accounting for more than half of the value of both exports and imports. Those that stand to lose the most are firms connected to the global value chains that simultaneously export and import. Around 370,000 workers from these firms are at risk. While large firms are able to withstand, to some extent,the COVID-19 shock, SMEs do not have such capability. We find that the profile of these SMEs is substantially different than that of the larger firms in terms of product composition. These SMEs export food and food products which are highly perishable and more sensitive even to short-term vicissitudes in global demand. Given these, we estimate the subsidy needed to support both SMEs and large firms. For SMEs, we compute the subsidy to be Php9.4 billion pesos for 2020. The amount of subsidy increases to Php33.2 billion if large firms were also subsidized for their losses. Identifying the specific mechanism by which such subsidies will be provided to firms of various sizes (e.g. SMEs vs large) requires further study. Length: 29 pages Creation-Date: 2020-03 Publication-Status: Published as UPSE Discussion Paper No. 2020-01, March 2020 File-URL: https://econ.upd.edu.ph/dp/index.php/dp/article/view/1524 File-Format: Application/pdf Number: 202001 Classification-JEL: O14, L11, H25 Keywords: COVID-19; Philippine Firms; Stimulus Package Handle: RePEc:phs:dpaper:202001 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Alfredo R. Paloyo Author-Name-First: Alfredo Author-Name-Last: Paloyo Author-Workplace-Name: University of Wollongong (Australia) Author-Name: Cielo Magno Author-Name-First: Cielo Author-Name-Last: Magno Author-Workplace-Name: School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman Author-Name: Karl Jandoc Author-Name-First: Karl Author-Name-Last: Jandoc Author-Workplace-Name: School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman Author-Name: Laarni Escresa Author-Name-First: Laarni Author-Name-Last: Escresa Author-Workplace-Name: School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman Author-Name: Ma. Christina Epetia Author-Name-First: Ma. Christina Author-Name-Last: Epetia Author-Workplace-Name: School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman Author-Name: Maria Socorro Gochoco-Bautista Author-Name-First: Maria Socorro Author-Name-Last: Gochoco-Bautista Author-Workplace-Name: School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman Author-Name: Emmanuel S. de Dios Author-Name-First: Emmanuel Author-Name-Last: de Dios Author-Workplace-Name: School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman Title: A Philippine Social Protection and Economic Recovery Plan Abstract: The world is facing its biggest public health crisis in a century. Managing this crisis requires an intentional contraction of the economy of unprecedented proportions. This deliberate and unavoidable drawdown in market activity will put businesses at risk of destruction, with hundreds of thousands of Filipinos likely to lose their source of livelihood. Many households will be plunged into poverty. Without assistance, those who are already poor will find themselves at the literal threshold of life and death as they battle both the virus that is ravaging their health and well-being, and the economic hardship that will almost certainly exact a social--if not physical--death. The government must act quickly to ensure that businesses can survive, jobs are secure, and the most vulnerable members of society are protected. The message must be decisive and formidable: "We will not let businesses fail, and we will not let people go hungry--whatever it takes." Our plan begins with recognizing that the economic contraction is immediate and sharp--but temporary. There will be a real output loss in the economy, but this is necessary to contain the spread of the virus. The objective is to alleviate the economic, social, and psychological hardships caused by the reduction in economic activity and to minimize any permanent damage to the economy. Doing this will involve providing emergency financial and nonfinancial aid to the most vulnerable households, guaranteeing continuity for businesses and maintaining the employment of their workers, and creating an economic environment which will allow the economy to recover quickly and continue on a growth trajectory when the public health crisis eventually wanes. Length: 12 pages Creation-Date: 2020-03 Publication-Status: Published as UPSE Discussion Paper No. 2020-02, March 2020 File-URL: https://econ.upd.edu.ph/dp/index.php/dp/article/view/1525 File-Format: Application/pdf Number: 202002 Keywords: COVID-19; Social Protection; Philippine Recovery Handle: RePEc:phs:dpaper:202002 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Mel Lorenzo Accad Author-Name-First: Mel Lorenzo Author-Name-Last: Accad Author-Workplace-Name: University of Hawaii at Manoa Title: New vs. Reelected Mayor: Who Is More Responsive to Disasters? Abstract: Are new mayors more responsive to disasters than their reelected counterparts? The identification strategy is based on slim vote margin in which new and reelected mayors are found to be as if randomly assigned. We find that with greater storm exposure: new mayors spend more on health sector than reelected mayors. We don’t find stable and statistically significant result in other sectors and in total municipal income or expenditure. Length: 26 pages Creation-Date: 2020-03 Publication-Status: Published as UPSE Discussion Paper No. 2020-03, March 2020 File-URL: https://econ.upd.edu.ph/dp/index.php/dp/article/view/1526 File-Format: Application/pdf Number: 202003 Classification-JEL: D72, D73, H84, O17 Keywords: election; accountability; disaster response Handle: RePEc:phs:dpaper:202003 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Toby C. Monsod Author-Name-First: Toby Author-Name-Last: Monsod Author-Workplace-Name: School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman Author-Name: Orville Jose C. Solon Author-Name-First: Orville Jose Author-Name-Last: Solon Author-Workplace-Name: School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman Author-Name: Maria Socorro Gochoco-Bautista Author-Name-First: Maria Socorro Author-Name-Last: Gochoco-Bautista Author-Workplace-Name: School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman Author-Name: Emmanuel S. de Dios Author-Name-First: Emmanuel Author-Name-Last: de Dios Author-Workplace-Name: School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman Author-Name: Joseph J. Capuno Author-Name-First: Joseph Author-Name-Last: Capuno Author-Workplace-Name: School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman Author-Name: Ma. Joy V. Abrenica Author-Name-First: Ma. Joy Author-Name-Last: Abrenica Author-Workplace-Name: School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman Author-Name: Agustin L. Arcenas Author-Name-First: Agustin Author-Name-Last: Arcenas Author-Workplace-Name: School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman Author-Name: Ma. Christina Epetia Author-Name-First: Ma. Christina Author-Name-Last: Epetia Author-Workplace-Name: School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman Author-Name: Laarni C. Escresa Author-Name-First: Laarni Author-Name-Last: Escresa Author-Workplace-Name: School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman Author-Name: Karl Jandoc Author-Name-First: Karl Author-Name-Last: Jandoc Author-Workplace-Name: School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman Author-Name: Aleli D. Kraft Author-Name-First: Aleli Author-Name-Last: Kraft Author-Workplace-Name: School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman Author-Name: Cielo Magno Author-Name-First: Cielo Author-Name-Last: Magno Author-Workplace-Name: School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman Author-Name: Renato E. Reside Jr. Author-Name-First: Renato Author-Name-Last: Reside Author-Workplace-Name: School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman Title: Surviving the Lockdown and Beyond Abstract: No abstract Length: 13 pages Creation-Date: 2020-04 Publication-Status: Published as UPSE Discussion Paper No. 2020-04, April 2020 File-URL: https://econ.upd.edu.ph/dp/index.php/dp/article/view/1527 File-Format: Application/pdf Number: 202004 Keywords: COVID-19; Philippines Handle: RePEc:phs:dpaper:202004 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Adrian R. Mendoza Author-Name-First: Adrian Author-Name-Last: Mendoza Author-Workplace-Name: School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman Title: Trade in the Time of Corona: Broken Chains and Mended Barriers Abstract: In light of the unprecedented mutation of the COVID-19 pandemic into a global economic recession, the WTO projects world trade volume to plummet by a staggering 13 percent to 32 percent in 2020. This translates to large-scale losses in global output and employment, especially in trade-oriented emerging economies such as the Philippines. Recovering from this dystopic scenario greatly depends on the duration of the outbreak, the downside risks from protectionist tendencies, the severity of the global recession, and the ability of world leaders to come up with a coordinated policy response. This paper provides a quick assessment of the major risks that must be dealt with to overcome these "four horsemen of trade apocalypse". Anchored on the WTO projections, this paper also assesses the short term prospects for Philippine trade. The results of the forecasting exercise suggest that Philippine merchandise exports could plummet in 2020 by 17.2 percent in the optimistic scenario and 39.5 percent in the pessimistic scenario. Compared to the pre-pandemic government target, the pessimistic case suggests that the country could lose up to US$31 billion export revenues this year due to the COVID-19 crisis. Merchandise imports will also experience a similar decline, albeit less severe. While the negative impact will likely be felt by all sectors, the biggest plunge is expected to be in electronics and other industries that are strongly connected to global production networks. On a positive note, Philippine exports and imports are expected to recover in 2021, albeit not fully, if the global public health crisis is resolved sooner than later. Length: 13 pages Creation-Date: 2020-04 Publication-Status: Published as UPSE Discussion Paper No. 2020-05, April 2020 File-URL: https://econ.upd.edu.ph/dp/index.php/dp/article/view/1528 File-Format: Application/pdf Number: 202005 Classification-JEL: F01, F13, F17, F42, F50, F60 Keywords: COVID-19 pandemic; global recession; trade collapse; Philippine exports and imports; 2020 projections Handle: RePEc:phs:dpaper:202005 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Orville Jose C. Solon Author-Name-First: Orville Jose Author-Name-Last: Solon Author-Workplace-Name: School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman Author-Name: Toby C. Monsod Author-Name-First: Toby Author-Name-Last: Monsod Author-Workplace-Name: School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman Author-Name: Maria Socorro Gochoco-Bautista Author-Name-First: Maria Socorro Author-Name-Last: Gochoco-Bautista Author-Workplace-Name: School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman Author-Name: Emmanuel S. de Dios Author-Name-First: Emmanuel Author-Name-Last: de Dios Author-Workplace-Name: School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman Author-Name: Joseph J. Capuno Author-Name-First: Joseph Author-Name-Last: Capuno Author-Workplace-Name: School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman Author-Name: Renato E. Reside Jr. Author-Name-First: Renato Author-Name-Last: Reside Author-Workplace-Name: School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman Author-Name: Ma. Joy V. Abrenica Author-Name-First: Ma. Joy Author-Name-Last: Abrenica Author-Workplace-Name: School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman Author-Name: Agustin L. Arcenas Author-Name-First: Agustin Author-Name-Last: Arcenas Author-Workplace-Name: School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman Author-Name: Sarah Lynne Daway-Ducanes Author-Name-First: Sarah Lynne Author-Name-Last: Daway-Ducanes Author-Workplace-Name: School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman Author-Name: Ma. Christina Epetia Author-Name-First: Ma. Christina Author-Name-Last: Epetia Author-Workplace-Name: School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman Author-Name: Laarni C. Escresa Author-Name-First: Laarni Author-Name-Last: Escresa Author-Workplace-Name: School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman Author-Name: Karl Jandoc Author-Name-First: Karl Author-Name-Last: Jandoc Author-Workplace-Name: School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman Author-Name: Cielo Magno Author-Name-First: Cielo Author-Name-Last: Magno Author-Workplace-Name: School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman Author-Name: Carlo Irwin A. Panelo Author-Name-First: Carlo Irwin Author-Name-Last: Panelo Author-Workplace-Name: University of the Philippines College of Medicine Title: A Sectoral View of Lifting the Lockdown and the Use of Sample-based Random Testing Abstract: No abstract Length: 12 pages Creation-Date: 2020-04 Publication-Status: Published as UPSE Discussion Paper No. 2020-06, April 2020 File-URL: https://econ.upd.edu.ph/dp/index.php/dp/article/view/1529 File-Format: Application/pdf Number: 202006 Keywords: COVID-19; Philippines Handle: RePEc:phs:dpaper:202006 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: SA Quimbo Author-Name-First: SA Author-Name-Last: Quimbo Author-Workplace-Name: House of Repsesentatives, Batasan Complex, Constitution Hills, Quezon City Author-Name: CT Latinazo Author-Name-First: CT Author-Name-Last: Latinazo Author-Workplace-Name: House of Repsesentatives, Batasan Complex, Constitution Hills, Quezon City Author-Name: JW Peabody Author-Name-First: JW Author-Name-Last: Peabody Author-Workplace-Name: QURE Healthcare, UCSF and UCLA Title: Vulnerable to the Virus: Globally-Oriented Manufacturing Firms at Risk From the Spread of COVID-19 Abstract: COVID-19 risk assessment is multi-faceted. The highly infectious nature of the virus in a naïve population, the high case fatality rate and health system over-burdening each need to be considered in developing a strategy to control the spread of the virus and mitigate its health and economic consequences. This note provides a framework for classifying LGUs by degree of risk and identifies policy options for each risk scenario. It urges the Department of Health (DOH) to: (i) re-assess risk levels of local government units (LGUs), (ii) undertake a 100 percent identification of place of residence of all COVID-19 confirmed cases and 100 percent reporting of number of isolation beds and ventilators by all hospitals, and (iii) develop and immediately implement a COVID-specific disease surveillance protocol, including mass testing, contact tracing, and quarantine. Careful and diligent implementation of these protocols will allow a gradual yet cautious and informed re-opening of the economy. Length: 24 pages Creation-Date: 2020-04 Publication-Status: Published as UPSE Discussion Paper No. 2020-07, April 2020 File-URL: https://econ.upd.edu.ph/dp/index.php/dp/article/view/1530 File-Format: Application/pdf Number: 202007 Keywords: COVID-19; Philippines; risk-assessment Handle: RePEc:phs:dpaper:202007 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Ian Nicole A. Generalao Author-Name-First: Ian Nicole Author-Name-Last: Generalao Author-Workplace-Name: School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman Title: Distance between occupations in the task complexity space Abstract: Using the task-based framework, this study measures the level of skill transferability across occupations by building an occupational distance measure. The distance measure allows us to compare occupations in terms of their task profiles. Skill transferability between two occupations is high if the occupations are ‘close’ with each other and low if occupations are ‘far’ from each. In addition, the distance measure allows us to classify which occupational moves are considered an upskilling, down-skilling or lateral occupational moves. The occupational distance measure is also applied to the sample of TVET graduates to measure their level of occupational mobility pre- and post-training. This has important implications in terms of the amount of additional training and education needed by individuals to move from one occupation to another. This study constitutes a basis for further studies on understanding the relationship among occupational distances, mobility and wage differentials in different economies. Length: 73 pages Creation-Date: 2020-05 Publication-Status: Published as UPSE Discussion Paper No. 2020-08, May 2020 File-URL: https://econ.upd.edu.ph/dp/index.php/dp/article/view/1531 File-Format: Application/pdf Number: 202008 Classification-JEL: J24, J62 Keywords: Tasks; Skills; Human Capital; Occupational Mobility Handle: RePEc:phs:dpaper:202008 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Dante B. Canlas Author-Name-First: Dante Author-Name-Last: Canlas Author-Workplace-Name: School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman Title: Is There Economic Convergence in Asia? Abstract: This paper opens up a study of economic convergence in Asia. This convergence refers to the ability of developing economies to catch up with the developed ones in terms of levels and growth rates of real per capita GDP. The study uses the lens of neoclassical growth models, both the basic models of Robert Solow and Trevor Swan, along with the models of Robert Lucas Jr. and Paul Romer in endogenous growth theory to interpret observed growth in Asia. Data are taken from the 45 developing member countries of the Asian Development Bank. The study supports conditional convergence but not absolute convergence. That is the lagging economies can catch up with the leading economies provided the former can adopt advanced technologies, such as, those that feature human-capital investments, learning-by-doing and increasing returns from knowledge accumulation. Length: 22 pages Creation-Date: 2020-06 Publication-Status: Published as UPSE Discussion Paper No. 2020-09, June 2020 File-URL: https://econ.upd.edu.ph/dp/index.php/dp/article/view/1532 File-Format: Application/pdf Number: 202009 Classification-JEL: N15, O11, O42 Keywords: economic convergence; neoclassical growth models; Asia Handle: RePEc:phs:dpaper:202009 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Marjorie C. Pajaron Author-Name-First: Marjorie Author-Name-Last: Pajaron Author-Workplace-Name: School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman Title: COVID-19 incidence and the timing of quarantine measures and travel restrictions: A cross-country analysis Abstract: Recent data on COVID-19 would suggest that no country is inured to the adverse effects of this disease. Although experts somehow agree on the virulence of the COVID-19 virus (SARS-CoV-2), it is puzzling why some countries have experienced the full brunt of the virus while others appear to have been totally spared. This paper examines one possible reason for the seemingly capricious nature of this virus. We compare the timing of the government response (travel restrictions and social distancing measures) of the ten ASEAN member countries and the incidence of COVID-19. Our preliminary results suggest that countries that responded relatively late (Indonesia, Philippines, Malaysia, and Thailand), when the local human-to-human transmission was already intense, have experienced a relatively high incidence of COVID-19 with the exception of Singapore and Cambodia. Further and more rigorous (regression) analysis is planned, conditional on data availability. Length: 22 pages Creation-Date: 2020-06 Publication-Status: Published as UPSE Discussion Paper No. 2020-10, June 2020 File-URL: https://econ.upd.edu.ph/dp/index.php/dp/article/view/1533 File-Format: Application/pdf Number: 202010 Classification-JEL: H12, I15, I18 Keywords: COVID-19; Cross-country analysis; ASEAN Handle: RePEc:phs:dpaper:202010 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Dante B. Canlas Author-Name-First: Dante Author-Name-Last: Canlas Author-Workplace-Name: School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman Title: What Covid-19 Hath Wrought and Debt Exit Options: A Note on Deficit Financing and Public Debt Management Abstract: This paper opens up a study of deficit financing and management of the public debt in the context of the COVID-19 outbreak in the Philippines. Borrowings of the national government from the monetary authority and from domestic and international financial markets, as well as the options for exiting from the public debt enlarged by such borrowings are assessed. At this juncture, public spending to strengthen social safety nets for truly disadvantaged families and firms are imperatives, but taxation that relieves big corporations and shifts to households and small firms the recovery of foregone corporate income taxes through burdensome indirect taxes must be shunned. Meanwhile, growing out of the public debt through sound monetary policy and structural reforms that embrace rise in total factor productivity is the least painful option to exit out of the newly expanded public debt. Length: 22 pages Creation-Date: 2020-06 Publication-Status: Published as UPSE Discussion Paper No. 2020-11, June 2020 File-URL: https://econ.upd.edu.ph/dp/index.php/dp/article/view/1534 File-Format: Application/pdf Number: 202011 Classification-JEL: E5, O4 Keywords: COVID-19; public debt management; deficit financing; Philippines Handle: RePEc:phs:dpaper:202011 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Dante B. Canlas Author-Name-First: Dante Author-Name-Last: Canlas Author-Workplace-Name: School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman Author-Name: Margarita Debuque-Gonzales Author-Name-First: Margarita Author-Name-Last: Debuque-Gonzales Author-Workplace-Name: School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman Title: Decentralized Infrastructure Development in the Philippines: Constraints, Governance, and Regulation in Water Abstract: This chapter discusses infrastructure development in the Philippines under decentralization using illustrations mainly in the water sector. It opens up a study of the constraints and challenges in governance and regulation that local government units (LGUs) face in narrowing down the infrastructure gaps in their various jurisdictions. To enable LGUs’ project proposals to get into the priority public investment program of the national government, the former must have skilled human resources capable of conducting the technical, legal, and financial analysis required. In governance, they must be able to navigate the complexities of water-pricing regulation. At the start, LGUs will need a good deal of technical, legal, and financial assistance from the national government in raising their capacity to overcome the challenges. However, through learning-by doing and as LGUs are able to mobilize additional resources using their power to impose tax and non-tax measures, decentralized infrastructure development can take off, guided by an effective division of labor between the national government and LGUs. Length: 21 pages Creation-Date: 2020-06 Publication-Status: Published as UPSE Discussion Paper No. 2020-12, June 2020 File-URL: https://econ.upd.edu.ph/dp/index.php/dp/article/view/1535 File-Format: Application/pdf Number: 202012 Classification-JEL: H7, O5 Keywords: decentralization; infrastructure development; governance and regulation; Philippines Handle: RePEc:phs:dpaper:202012 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Ernesto M. Pernia Author-Name-First: Ernesto Author-Name-Last: Pernia Author-Workplace-Name: School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman Title: Health is Economy: Some Lessons from COVID-19 Abstract: "Health is wealth," though a cliché, has scarcely been uttered during this coronavirus pandemic. Not surprising as it has become second nature to individuals, while what we have is a public health crisis. So more appropriate is "health is economy." Indeed, health and economy are intimately linked and interactive -- sound public health is good for the productivity and sustainability of the economy which, in turn, generates jobs and goods needed for a healthy population. Length: 7 pages Creation-Date: 2020-10 Publication-Status: Published as UPSE Discussion Paper No. 2020-13, October 2020 File-URL: https://econ.upd.edu.ph/dp/index.php/dp/article/view/1536 File-Format: Application/pdf Number: 202013 Keywords: COVID-19; Philippine economy; Philippines Handle: RePEc:phs:dpaper:202013