Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Adrian R. Mendoza Author-Name-First: Adrian Author-Name-Last: Mendoza Author-Workplace-Name: School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman Title: Navigating turbulent waters: The Philippines’ global value chains experience amid trade wars Abstract: In light of recent pronouncements of tariff hikes in the United States (US) and the retaliatory responses of major economies such as China, Canada, and Mexico, this paper revisits the global value chains (GVC) experience of the Philippines amid the trade tensions between China and the US from 2018 to 2019, especially within the context of the intricate web of trade linkages in East and Southeast Asia. The inter-country input-output analysis confirms that the tariff wars generated shocks that adversely affected the GVC and overall trade performance of bystander economies in East and Southeast Asia that are not directly involved in the trade conflicts but are strongly connected to the disputing parties. Sectors directly and indirectly contributing value added to American and Chinese exports hit by tariff hikes expectedly suffered the most. However, the impact was asymmetric. Country-sector pairs with higher contribution to Chinese exports to the US were more likely to experience negative growth of overall exports in 2019. But no similar effect was traced to higher exposure to US exports to China. Moreover, the impact on the Philippines was less severe compared to bigger East and Southeast Asian economies, probably due to the country’s relatively weaker direct linkages to Chinese and American GVCs. Given these results, the paper discusses the effects of distortionary tariff wars within the broader context of interconnectedness, multilateralism, and power dynamics in GVC-dominated world trade. The paper argues that restoring the stability of global trade policy is necessary to renew confidence in the world trading system and reduce the lingering uncertainty created by pre-pandemic trade conflicts. The paper also highlights some potential challenges and opportunities for the Philippines amid the resurgence of the tariff wars in 2025. Length: 23 pages Creation-Date: 2025-02 Publication-Status: Published as UPSE Discussion Paper No. 2025-01, February 2025 File-URL: https://econ.upd.edu.ph/dp/index.php/dp/article/view/1560 File-Format: Application/pdf Number: 202501 Classification-JEL: F10, F13, F14, F60 Keywords: global value chains; trade wars; inter-country input-output analysis; East Asia; Southeast Asia; Philippines Handle: RePEc:phs:dpaper:202501 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Dante B. Canlas Author-Name-First: Dante Author-Name-Last: Canlas Author-Workplace-Name: School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman Author-Name: Karl Robert L. Jandoc Author-Name-First: Karl Robert Author-Name-Last: Jandoc Author-Workplace-Name: School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman Title: Promoting Competition and Regulatory Reforms in Franchising Electricity Distribution Abstract: This paper examines the implications of renewing Meralco’s electricity distribution franchise, which was recently extended for another 25 years. Several unresolved competition and regulatory issues challenge the alignment of this extension with the Electric Power Industry Reform Act (EPIRA) of 2001. Key concerns include Meralco’s dominant market position, cross-ownership with generation companies, potential franchise creep, and its influence in the retail market. The paper advocates for structural reforms such as competitive franchise auctions, stricter cross-ownership limitations, and the possible division of Meralco’s service areas to promote market efficiency and consumer welfare. It also proposes granting the Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) the authority to oversee franchise bidding and to enforce more rigorous monitoring of market behavior. The findings emphasize that automatic renewal without reforms risks entrenching monopolistic practices and foregoing opportunities for improving transparency, competition, and efficiency in the electricity distribution sector. Length: 23 pages Creation-Date: 2025-04 Publication-Status: Published as UPSE Discussion Paper No. 2025-02, April 2025 File-URL: https://econ.upd.edu.ph/dp/index.php/dp/article/view/1561 File-Format: Application/pdf Number: 202502 Classification-JEL: L94; L51; L41 Keywords: Electricity Distribution; Franchise Regulation; Competition Policy Handle: RePEc:phs:dpaper:202502 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Jan Carlo B. PunongbayanD Author-Name-First: Jan Carlo Author-Name-Last: Punongbayan Author-Workplace-Name: School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman Author-Name: Jefferson A. Arapoc Author-Name-First: Jefferson Author-Name-Last: Arapoc Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, University of the Philippines Los Baños Title: Is there a grade penalty for high school track and college degree mismatches? Evidence from the University of the Philippines Abstract: This study examines the consequences of college students pursuing degree programs that do not align with the tracks and strands they selected in senior high school. We utilize a unique dataset that links admissions and enrollment records from the University of the Philippines Diliman to investigate whether this mismatch affects students’ academic performance. Using propensity score matching, we do not find evidence of a grade penalty for most degree programs. However, we estimate a significant grade penalty specifically for mismatch in science and engineering programs, where a strong background in the Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM) strand is expected and in fact necessary for academic performance; i.e., students who did not come from the STEM strand tend to perform worse. These findings suggest that the choice of a SHS strand may maLer in some fields more than others, raising important questions about how SHS tracks are offered and how college admissions policies take high school backgrounds into account. Length: 28 pages Creation-Date: 2025-07 Publication-Status: Published as UPSE Discussion Paper No. 2025-03, July 2025 File-URL: https://econ.upd.edu.ph/dp/index.php/dp/article/view/1561 File-Format: Application/pdf Number: 202503 Classification-JEL: I21; I23; I28; J24 Keywords: college performance; K to 12; mismatch; grade penalty; propensity score matching Handle: RePEc:phs:dpaper:202503