Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Arsenio Balisacan Author-Workplace-Name: University of the Philippines School of Economics Title: MDGs in the Philippines: setting the poverty scores right and achieving the targets Abstract: The official poverty data fall short of properly informing public policy and governance concerning the progress, or lack thereof, in achieving the countryÕs commitment of halving, between 1990 and 2015,the incidence of poverty and hunger. Imposing consistency in poverty estimation shows that the poverty trend is actually even more alarming than what the official data depict. ÒBusiness as usual Òkeeps the country from achieving the MDG 1 targets. Meeting the huge policy challenge of poverty reduction requires nothing less than rapid but sustained and inclusive growth. Classification-JEL: I3, O15, O53 Keywords: human development, Philippines, poverty, welfare Journal: Philippine Review of Economics Pages: 1-20 Volume: 47 Issue: 2 Year: 2010 Month: December File-URL: http://pre.econ.upd.edu.ph/index.php/pre/article/view/650/752 File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:phs:prejrn:v:47:y:2010:i:2:p:1-20 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Edward P. Santos Author-Workplace-Name: School of Statistics, University of the Philippines Diliman Author-Name: Dennis S. Mapa Author-Workplace-Name: School of Statistics, University of the Philippines Diliman Author-Name: Eloisa T. Glindro Author-Workplace-Name: Center for Monetary Policy and Financial Policy, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Title: Estimating inflation-at-risk (IaR) using extreme value theory (EVT) Abstract: The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) has the primary responsibility of maintaining stable prices conducive to a balanced and sustainable economic growth. The year 2008 posed a challenge to the BSPÕs monetary policy making as inflation hit an official 17-year high of 12.5 percent in August after ten months of continuous acceleration. The alarming double-digit inflation rate was attributed to rising fuel and food prices, particularly the price of rice. A high inflation rate has impact on poverty since inflation affects the poor more than the rich. From a macroeconomic perspective, a high level of inflation is not conducive to economic growth. This paper proposes a method of estimating inflation-at-risk (IaR) similar to the value-at-risk (VaR) used to estimate risk in the financial markets. The IaR represents the maximum inflation over a target horizon for a given low pre-specified probability. It can serve as an early warning system that the BSP can use to identify whether the level of inflation is extreme enough to be considered an imminent threat to its inflation objective. Extreme value theory (EVT), which deals with the frequency and magnitude of very low-probability events, is used as the basis for building a model in estimating the IaR. The estimates of the IaR using the peaks-over-threshold (POT) model suggest that while the inflation rate experienced in 2008 cannot be considered as an extreme value, it was very near the estimated 90 percent IaR. Classification-JEL: E31, C52, C01 Keywords: inflation-at-risk (IaR), extreme value theory (EVT), peaks-over- threshold (POT) Journal: Philippine Review of Economics Pages: 21-40 Volume: 47 Issue: 2 Year: 2010 Month: December File-URL: http://pre.econ.upd.edu.ph/index.php/pre/article/view/651/753 File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:phs:prejrn:v:47:y:2010:i:2:p:21-40 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Achilles Costales Author-Workplace-Name: College of Social Sciences, University of the Philippines Baguio Title: Livestock sector development, economic growth, and poverty reduction Abstract: The global distribution of poor livestock keepers tailors closely the regional distribution of poverty densities in the developing world. Reducing poverty among this group requires livestock sector growth in these regions. As per capita incomes expand, household expenditures on meat and milk grow faster than those on grains and cereals. Strong growth in demand for meat and milk presents a significant catalyst for expansion of the economic activity and incomes of rural smallholder livestock keepers. More recent data show that the larger majority of rural households even in low-income developing countries are market-oriented rather than pure subsistence producers. Public investments that efficiently link livestock products to centers of domestic demand will allow rural livestock producers to capture the societal value accorded to their higher-value meat and milk products. The subsequent growth of livestock-related rural industries along the market chain offers an additional growth and poverty-reducing channel via spillover impacts. Classification-JEL: Q1, O1 Keywords: sector growth, poverty reduction, smallholders, market links Journal: Philippine Review of Economics Pages: 41-54 Volume: 47 Issue: 2 Year: 2010 Month: December File-URL: http://pre.econ.upd.edu.ph/index.php/pre/article/view/652/754 File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:phs:prejrn:v:47:y:2010:i:2:p:41-54 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Ma. Piedad S. Geron Title: Microinsurance:?facilitating risk protection for the poor Abstract: The Philippine microfinance industry has developed over the years. From only a few large microfinance institutions (MFIs) with less than a million clients in the late Õ90s,the industry has now more than 2,000 MFIs with almost 7 million clients. Large commercial banks, which used to ignore the low-income sector as potential clients of financial services, have recently been providing wholesale funds to retail microfinance institutions. With the development of the microfinance industry in the Philippines, MFIs face a growing demand for financial products and services, including risk protection services. Demand for micro-insurance products (i.e., insurance products for the poor) is growing in view of continuing risks to household welfare and the seeming inability of the government to address this issue. The MFIs have realized the need to assist their clients, consisting mostly of poor households and microenterprises, with financial products that will help them manage those risks. A number of those MFIs have started with informal means of risk protection; some have linked up with commercial insurance companies to deliver insurance products to their clientele and still others have established their own mutual benefit associations (MBAs). Recognizing this need and having learned that provision of financial services to the poor can best be done by the private sector, the government in January 2010 launched the National Strategy for Microinsurance and the Regulatory Framework for Microinsurance. These documents, which provide the pillars for the development of the microinsurance market in the Philippines, called for greater role of the private sector in the provision of microinsurance products and services. Given the need to protect the poor from risks, the paper looks at the roles of both government and the private sector in providing risk protection to the poor. Classification-JEL: G22 Keywords: insurance, microinsurance and microfinance Journal: Philippine Review of Economics Pages: 55-70 Volume: 47 Issue: 2 Year: 2010 Month: December File-URL: http://pre.econ.upd.edu.ph/index.php/pre/article/view/653/755 File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:phs:prejrn:v:47:y:2010:i:2:p:55-70 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Anna Floresca F. Abrina Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, University of the Philippines Los Ba–os Author-Name: Jose V. Camacho Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, University of the Philippines Los Ba–os Author-Name: U-Primo E. Rodriguez Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, University of the Philippines Los Ba–osAuthor-Name: Jaimie Kim E. Bayani-Arias Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, University of the Philippines Los Ba–os Title: Is it worth investing further in AFNR programs?: simulations from a supply-and-demand model Abstract: The recent proliferation of state and local universities and colleges compounded with the high unemployment rate among graduates of fields related to agriculture, fisheries, and natural resources (AFNR) questions the validity of government making it a standing policy to make AFNR tertiary education more attractive.This paper attempts to address this issue by way of a supply-and-demand model of AFNR services. Results of the simulations indicate that there are bleak prospects for AFNR graduates in paid employment.The source of the problem appears to be weak demand such that further expansion in AFNR programs and enrolment as well as proposals to further subsidize these programs should be reconsidered. Classification-JEL: C69, J21, J64 Keywords: Philippines,labor market,unemployment,supply-and-demand model; agriculture, fisheries, and natural resources graduates Journal: Philippine Review of Economics Pages: 71-82 Volume: 47 Issue: 2 Year: 2010 Month: December File-URL: http://pre.econ.upd.edu.ph/index.php/pre/article/view/654/756 File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:phs:prejrn:v:47:y:2010:i:2:p:71-82 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Elizabeth S. Tan Author-Workplace-Name: School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman Title: ChinaÕs integration in East Asia: the role of intra-industry trade Abstract: ChinaÕs intra-industry trade (IIT) with East Asia was minimal during the early years of opening up from 1978 to 1993 but increased relative to inter-industry trade in the post-1993 years. Bilateral intra-industry trade (BIIT) with Japan and Korea was sustained in capital-intensive heavy industries such as metals and yarns; its BIIT with East Asian countries also increased tremendously starting 1993 in industries characterized by production networks. BIIT with the more developed partners has increasingly become more important through higher volume and higher shares of trade in a growing number of industries. While this is also true for its trade with ASEAN 4, IIT is less both in absolute and relative terms. The overall trend shows that ChinaÕs integration to East Asia has not only increased but also deepened. ChinaÕs IIT should be analysed in the context of its historical legacy from the planned period and the continued dominance of the central government in key strategic industries. Classification-JEL: F14, F15 Keywords: ChinaÕs trade integration, East Asian integration, intra-industry trade Journal: Philippine Review of Economics Pages: 83-118 Volume: 47 Issue: 2 Year: 2010 Month: December File-URL: http://pre.econ.upd.edu.ph/index.php/pre/article/view/655/757 File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:phs:prejrn:v:47:y:2010:i:2:p:83-118 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Romulo A. Virola Author-Workplace-Name: National Statistical Coordination Board Title: On questions about Philippine GDP estimates Abstract: This paper seeks to clarify some of the points raised in the UP School of Economics Discussion Paper 0802,ÒPhilippine GDP Growth after the Asian Financial Crisis: Resilient Economy or Weak Statistical System?Ó by Felipe M. Medalla and Karl Robert L. Jandoc. Journal: Philippine Review of Economics Pages: 119-144 Volume: 47 Issue: 2 Year: 2010 Month: December File-URL: http://pre.econ.upd.edu.ph/index.php/pre/article/view/656/758 File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:phs:prejrn:v:47:y:2010:i:2:p:119-144 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Felipe M. Medalla Author-Workplace-Name: School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman Title: The national accounts and economic development: more questions than answers Abstract: The National Statistics Coordination Board (NSCB) is being less than candid when it claims that it is just a compiler of the national accounts and that it has avoided economic theories in doing so.(ÒAs in the earlier clarificatory note, we would not wish to comment on the economic theories and expectations or speculations as to how the economy and its components should be performing;this article is written purely from the point of view of the NSCB as the compiler of the national accounts of the Philippines.Ó Journal: Philippine Review of Economics Pages: 145-150 Volume: 47 Issue: 2 Year: 2010 Month: December File-URL: http://pre.econ.upd.edu.ph/index.php/pre/article/view/657/759 File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:phs:prejrn:v:47:y:2010:i:2:p:145-150