Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Luis Dumlao
Author-Workplace-Name: Ateneo de Manila University
Title: Gross International reserves: accumulation management, and relation to debt
Abstract: This paper narrates pertinent lessons learned from financial crises and how countries have responded to them. With lessons learned comes the reaction to accumulate gross international reserves (GIR). A strength-weakness-opportunity-threat (SWOT) assessment of the present level of GIR of the Philippines is presented. The GIR is also juxtaposed with the debt of the Philippines. It provides insight into whether the debt of the Philippines is more external or internal, and whether it is a problem at all. With the continuing accumulation of debt, its level may have reached the point of excess. The consideration is whether to shift from passive liquidity management to active investment seeking, external debt management, or active inclusion.
Classification-F31, F34
Keywords: gross international reserve, diversification, management
Journal: Philippine Review of Economics
Pages: 1-22
Volume: 50
Issue: 1
Year: 2013
Month: June
File-URL: http://pre.econ.upd.edu.ph/index.php/pre/article/view/888/787
File-Format: Application/pdf
Handle: RePEc:phs:prejrn:v:50:y:2013:i:1:p:1-22

Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Jonna Estudillo
Author-Workplace-Name: National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies, Tokyo, Japan
Author-Name: Tomoya Matsumoto
Author-Workplace-Name: National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies, Tokyo, Japan
Author-Name: Chowdhury Zia Uddin Hayat
Author-Workplace-Name: Finance Division, Ministry of Finance, Dhaka, Bangladesh
Author-Name: Nandika S. Kumanayake
Author-Workplace-Name: Sri Lanka Customs, Ministry of Finance, Colombo, Sri Lanka
Author-Name: Keijiro Otsuka
Author-Workplace-Name: National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies, Tokyo, Japan
Title: Labor markets, occupational choice, and rural poverty in four Asian countries
Abstract: This paper explores the underlying mechanism in the rural labor market that leads to income growth and poverty reduction in the rural areas of the Philippines, Vietnam, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka. Increase in nonfarm income, most importantly coming from formal jobs, has served as an important driver of income growth and poverty reduction. Thus, to reduce rural poverty, formal jobs must be created because quality of jobs matters a lot in improving the living standards.
Classification-J24,J43, O15
Keywords: poverty, formal jobs, nonfarm sector, rural labor market
Pages: 23-44
Volume: 50
Issue: 1
Year: 2013
Month: June
File-URL: http://pre.econ.upd.edu.ph/index.php/pre/article/view/889/789
File-Format: Application/pdf
Handle: RePEc:phs:prejrn:v:50:y:2013:i:1:p:23-44

Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Gilbert Nartea
Author-Workplace-Name: Lincoln University, Canterbury, New Zealand
Author-Name: Bo Hu
Author-Workplace-Name: Lincoln University, Canterbury, New Zealand
Author-Name: Baiding Hu
Author-Workplace-Name: Lincoln University, Canterbury, New Zealand
Title: Are there rational speculative bubbles in the Philippine stock market?
Abstract: ASEAN stock markets have experienced episodes of long price run-ups followed by large drops over the past 20 years. These apparent bouts of boom and bust have prompted the popular press to conjecture the presence of speculative asset bubbles in these markets causing stock prices to deviate from fundamental values. We use descriptive statistics and
McQueen and ThorleyÕs [1994] duration dependence test to examine the presence of rational speculative bubblesÑa special case of speculative bubblesÑin the Philippine stock market over the period from 1991 to 2009. We do not detect the presence of rational speculative bubbles in the Philippines using both monthly and weekly returns. This implies that the long run-ups in prices and the subsequent drops over the sample period could have been justified by fundamental value changes. However, it is also possible that there were bubbles caused by irrational investor behavior. We suggest that further research in this area is warranted.
Classification-G14
Keywords: rational speculative bubbles, duration dependence, Philippines
Pages: 45-56
Volume: 50
Issue: 1
Year: 2013
Month: June
File-URL: http://pre.econ.upd.edu.ph/index.php/pre/article/view/890/790
File-Format: Application/pdf
Handle: RePEc:phs:prejrn:v:50:y:2013:i:1:p:45-56

Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Cesar Rufino
Author-Workplace-Name: School of Economics, De Lasalle University-Manila
Title: Random walks in the different sectoral submarkets of the Philippine Stock Exchange amid modernization
Abstract: This study explores the weak-form efficiency of the Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE) and its different sectoral markets using modern inference techniques with robust statistical properties. The research is motivated by the lack of consensus in the literature on the informational efficiency of the countryÕs stock market and the apparent scarcity of studies on the same issue using data covering the period of massive modernization of the exchange, geared toward transparent disclosures and integrity of transactions. The study may also be considered a fitting assessment of why the PSE is setting the pace over most stock exchanges in Asia in terms of growth levels across key stock market indicators, culminating in a highly successful year 2012 when it ranked ninth among the ten best-performing stock markets of the world. Evidence presented by the results of the study suggests the presence of overall informational efficiency in the Philippine Stock Exchange during the period under review.
Classification-C14, G14, G15
Keywords: random walk, market efficiency, panel unit root tests, variance ratio tests, wild bootstrap, stock exchange modernization
Pages: 57-82
Volume: 50
Issue: 1
Year: 2013
Month: June
File-URL: http://pre.econ.upd.edu.ph/index.php/pre/article/view/891/791
File-Format: Application/pdf
Handle: RePEc:phs:prejrn:v:50:y:2013:i:1:p:57-82

Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Richard Ballester
Author-Workplace-Name: National Economic and Development Authority
Author-Name: Joy Sinay
Author-Workplace-Name: National Economic and Development Authority
Title: An empirical analysis of the export-led growth (ELG) hypothesis in the Philippines
Abstract: We reexamine the relationship between growth and exports of the Philippines for the period 1977Ð2009 using the methods of Sharma and Panagiotidis [2005] and Feder [1983]. With the shift in the current economic policy toward inclusive growth, we find it necessary to assess if indeed the export-led growth (ELG) hypothesis really worked for the country. Specifically, our research investigates the cointegration of exports, imports, and output using the Johansen cointegration test and the Breitung cointegration test; the Granger-causality between exports, investments, and output; and the impact of macroeconomic shocks by employing a vector autoregressive model. In summary, we find that the ELG hypothesis appears to be empirically unsupported for the Philippine case.
Classification-E20, F10, F41, O11, O24
Keywords: export-led growth hypothesis, Breitung cointegration test, vector autoregressive model
Pages: 83-110
Volume: 50
Issue: 1
Year: 2013
Month: June
File-URL: http://pre.econ.upd.edu.ph/index.php/pre/article/view/892/792
File-Format: Application/pdf
Handle: RePEc:phs:prejrn:v:50:y:2013:i:1:p:83-110

Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Jonna Estudillo
Author-Workplace-Name: National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies, Tokyo, Japan
Author-Name: Keijiro Otsuka
Author-Workplace-Name: National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies, Tokyo, Japan
Title: HayamiÕs development economics
Abstract: Memorial piece dedicated to Professor Yujiro Hayami
Classification
Keywords: memorial
Pages: 111-112
Volume: 50
Issue: 1
Year: 2013
Month: June 
File-URL: http://pre.econ.upd.edu.ph/index.php/pre/article/view/893/793
File-Format: Application/pdf
Handle: RePEc:phs:prejrn:v:50:y:2013:i:1:p:111-112

Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: James Roumasset
Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, University of Hawaii-Monoa
Title: EvensonÕs law
Abstract: Memorial piece dedicated to Professor Robert Evenson
Classification
Keywords: memorial
Pages: 113-114
Volume: 50
Issue: 1
Year: 2013
Month: June
File-URL: http://pre.econ.upd.edu.ph/index.php/pre/article/view/894/794
File-Format: Application/pdf
Handle: RePEc:phs:prejrn:v:50:y:2013:i:1:p:113-114