Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Ma. Laarni D. Revilla Author-Workplace-Name: World Bank Author-Workplace-Name: National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies (GRIPS), Tokyo Author-Name: Jonna P. Estudillo Author-Workplace-Name: University of the Philippines Title: The impacts of secondary education reforms on schooling and income of women and men in the Philippines Abstract: In 1988 and 1989, the Philippine government implemented free public and subsidized private secondary schooling through two major policies, namely Republic Act (RA) 6655 and RA 6728. This study investigates the long-run impacts of the two policies on schooling attainment and income using a regression discontinuity design (RDD). It draws data from the Annual Poverty Indicators Survey 2008 and 2011. We present two main !ndings. First, younger cohorts of women and men, who are policy bene!ciaries, have signi!cantly higher educational attainment relative to non-bene!ciaries. Second, an additional year of schooling signi!cantly increases individual income of women in the informal sector and men in the formal sector. In brief, our !ndings suggest that the policies are effective in enhancing schooling attainment, but the downstream impacts appear to have accrued substantially to women employed in the informal sector and men employed in the formal sector. Classification-JEL: I21, I25, I26, I28, O1 Keywords: schooling, income, gender, regression discontinuity design Journal: Philippine Review of Economics Pages: 1-25 Volume: 59 Issue: 1 Year: 2022 Month: June File-URL: https://econ.upd.edu.ph/pre/index.php/pre/article/view/1021/930 File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:phs:prejrn:v:59:y:2022:i:1:p:1-25 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Takiko Igarashi Author-Workplace-Name: Asian Development Bank Institute Author-Name: Pablo Acosta Author-Workplace-Name: World Bank Author-Workplace-Name: IZA - Institute of Labor Economics Title: Who benefits from Dual Training Systems? Evidence from the Philippines Abstract: Rising youth unemployment rates have been increasingly recognized as a serious challenge in developing and advanced economies, suggesting a potential skills gap between the demand and supply of recent graduates. Effective dual education programs which utilize a combination of classroom instruction and practical skill training are usually presented as an approach to develop a skilled workforce and meet employers’ demands. This paper analyzes data from a recent survey tracking graduates from the Philippines’ Dual Training System (DTS), as well as from regular programs provided by technical vocational training institutes. The evidence suggests that the DTS has a signi!cantly higher rate of returns on labor market earnings than regular, classroom-only vocational training programs, particularly among high school graduates who did not perform well academically during basic education. The magnitude of the impact of the DTS is also likely to increase in correlation with the intensity of the on-the-job component. Classification-JEL: I21, J24, O15 Keywords: Philippines, skills, training systems, vocational education Journal: Philippine Review of Economics Pages: 26-45 Volume: 59 Issue: 1 Year: 2022 Month: June File-URL: https://econ.upd.edu.ph/pre/index.php/pre/article/view/1022/931 File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:phs:prejrn:v:59:y:2022:i:1:p:26-45 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Sanjeev Parmanand Author-Workplace-Name: Durham University Title: The impact of Philippine monetary policy on domestic prices and output: evaluating the country’s transmission channels Abstract: This paper examines the price and output effects of Philippine monetary policy through its transmission channels from 1996 to 2019 using Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) models. Recursive and non-recursive identi!cation strategies are implemented to build a model that represents the small open economy of the Philippines, which is affected by exogenous shocks in oil prices and US interest rates. Impulse response functions are then compared between recursive and non-recursive models to select results that demonstrate consistency with macroeconomic theory and overall statistical signi!cance. The Local Projections method is then applied as a means of verifying the accuracy of the preferred model’s results. Findings show that a contractionary shock to Philippine monetary policy has weak short-term effects on domestic output and prices. These results contribute to the literature by characterizing the strength of transmission channels 17 years after in"ation targeting was adopted as a primary component of Philippine monetary policy. Classification-JEL: C01, E52 Keywords: Philippine monetary policy, structural vector autoregression, Local Projections method Journal: Philippine Review of Economics Pages: 46-76 Volume: 59 Issue: 1 Year: 2022 Month: June File-URL: https://econ.upd.edu.ph/pre/index.php/pre/article/view/1023/932 File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:phs:prejrn:v:59:y:2022:i:1:p:46-76 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Zeno Ronald R. Abenoja Author-Workplace-Name: Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Author-Name: Jasmin E. Dacio Author-Workplace-Name: Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Author-Name: Sarah Jane A. Castañares Author-Workplace-Name: Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Author-Name: Jan Christopher G. Ocampo Author-Workplace-Name: Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Author-Name: Mark Rex S. Romaraog Author-Workplace-Name: Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Title: The BSP's Forecasting and Policy Analysis System Abstract: The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) subscribes to the Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS) as the framework for macroeconomic forecasting and analysis in support of monetary policy formulation. FPAS is a standard framework, adopted by many in"ation-targeting central banks, that organizes the generation, consolidation, and analysis of economic information relavant to monetary policy formulation. This paper aims to describe how macroeconomic forecasts and policy simulations are generated to support monetary policy analysis and formulation at the BSP. To this end, this article summarizes the main features of the process involved in generating the baseline forecasts, alternative scenarios, and policy simulations. We highlight the complementary roles played by the BSP’s suite of models and the expert judgement from the sector specialists as well as the importance of forecast communication in the transmission of monetary policy. Finally, we present a systematic evaluation of the forecasting performance of the BSP from 2010 to 2020 together with some of the lessons in forecasting during the COVID-19 pandemic and the recent efforts to improve the BSP’s FPAS. Classification-JEL: C5, E5 Keywords: monetary policy, macroeconomic modelling, forecasting, inflation targeting Journal: Philippine Review of Economics Pages: 77-107 Volume: 59 Issue: 1 Year: 2022 Month: June File-URL: https://econ.upd.edu.ph/pre/index.php/pre/article/view/1024/933 File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:phs:prejrn:v:59:y:2022:i:1:p:77-107 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Emmanuel S. de Dios Author-Workplace-Name: University of the Philippines Title: Azcárraga’s critique of mercantilism: trade as an engine of growth Abstract: Manuel Azcárraga y Palmero's La libertad de comercio en las islas Filipinas (1872) was an unequivocal and consistent tract advocating free trade as a commercial policy for the Philippines. It is remarkable for its explicit and frequent reference to free-trade theory and the example of other nations (notably Britain and its colonies) as a guide to policy. It uses a historical approach in its critique of Spanish mercantilist ideas and biases, which are held responsible for centuries of foregone development opportunities for the Philippines. This article traces Azcárraga’s arguments and links them to Smith’s [1776] theory of international trade and its later elaborations (Myint [1958, 1977] and Schumacher [2015, 2016]). The protectionist mindset and policies Azcárraga believed to have held back Philippine progress one hundred !fty years ago are a striking portent of issues hounding the country’s development in the 20th century and even later. Classification-JEL: B12, B17, B31, F13, N75 Keywords: mercantilism, free trade, Spanish liberalism, galleon trade, carrying trade, Adam Smith’s trade theory, Spanish commercial policy in the Philippines Journal: Philippine Review of Economics Pages: 108-155 Volume: 59 Issue: 1 Year: 2022 Month: June File-URL: https://econ.upd.edu.ph/pre/index.php/pre/article/view/1025/935 File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:phs:prejrn:v:59:y:2022:i:1:p:108-155 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Sarah Lynne S. Daway-Ducanes Author-Workplace-Name: University of the Philippines Title: Book Review of Trauma to triumph: rising from the ashes of the Asian Financial Crisis Abstract: Trauma to triumph: rising from the ashes of the Asian Financial Crisis (edited by Hoe Ee Khor, Diwa C. Guinigundo and Masahiro Kawai) is an epic endeavor to link the devastation and “trauma” from the 1997-98 Asian Financial Crisis (AFC) in the ASEAN+3 region to the adoption of key domestic structural reforms and the establishment of regional !nancial cooperative mechanisms, which would be instrumental to the region’s “triumphs” of recovering and growing in the AFC’s aftermath, weathering the adverse effects of the 2007-08 Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and even thriving in the post-GFC period. In the midst of the still looming threat of the COVID-19 global pandemic, and the new threats posed by the Ukraine-Russia war and cost-push global in"ation, the titular “triumph” may also extend to the current opportunities for greater regional cooperation to overcome these challenges. Classification-JEL: Keywords: book review Journal: Philippine Review of Economics Pages: 156-163 Volume: 59 Issue: 1 Year: 2022 Month: June File-URL: https://econ.upd.edu.ph/pre/index.php/pre/article/view/1026/936 File-Format: Application/pdf Handle: RePEc:phs:prejrn:v:59:y:2022:i:1:p:156-163