(DP 1981-04) Asian Urbanization and Development: A Comparative Analysis

Abstract

A comparative perspective on Asian urbanization and development is offered in this paper. In this first part, some aspects of urbanization and spatial concentration are discussed using data on South, Southeast, East and Centrally Planned Asian countries. South and Southeast (and some extent Centrally Planned) Asian countries have been experiencing slow urbanization but rapid urban and rural population growth; the reverse is true for East Asian countries. In the second part, an expanded urbanization-development model is proposed and then tested empirically. The results show that, in addition to manufacturing and agricultural growth, population growth plays a crucial role but this is to slow down the urbanization process. Agricultural development also appears to retard urbanization, perhaps because it allows for absorption of labor, lending further support to the notion that rural development can reduce unwarranted migration to cities. Another noteworthy finding is that openness of the economy, besides manufacturing activity, is a significant determinant of concentration in the metropolis. Apparently, concentration is a response to the need to be near the principal port as well as to offices that issue import licenses and foreign exchange, among other things. Thus, spatial concentration seems to be partly an unintended consequence of economic policies, salient among which was the import-substitution industrialization strategy in the past.