The Possibilities of Sustainable Growth in the Philippines: A Three-Gap Analysis

Manuel F. Montes, Joseph Y. Lim, Agnes R. Quisumbing


This paper presents a three-gap model that allows the writers to do exercises which will determine how much foreign inflows (or reduction of foreign outflows) will be required to sustain a satisfactory growth rate for the Philippines given the binding foreign exchange and fiscal constraints. The result show that using the 1988 structure of the economy, the Philippines would need much more foreign exchange inflows than have been forthcoming to sustain a 5 percent or higher growth rate.

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