An empirical analysis of the export-led growth (ELG) hypothesis in the Philippines

Richard Ballester, Joy Sinay


We reexamine the relationship between growth and exports of the Philippines for the period 1977–2009 using the methods of Sharma and Panagiotidis [2005] and Feder [1983]. With the shift in the current economic policy toward inclusive growth, we find it necessary to assess if indeed the export-led growth (ELG) hypothesis really worked for the country. Specifically, our research investigates the cointegration of exports, imports, and output using the Johansen cointegration test and the Breitung cointegration test; the Granger-causality between exports, investments, and output; and the impact of macroeconomic shocks by employing a vector autoregressive model. In summary, we find that the ELG hypothesis appears to be empirically unsupported for the Philippine case.

JEL Classification: E20, F10, F41, O11, O24

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