The University of the Philippines School of Economics, in collaboration with the Philippine Center for Economic Development, invites you to a brown bag seminar by Jerome Abesamis, PhD candidate at the UP School of Economics. The seminar is on November 26, 2025 (Wednesday), will be held at 12NN, Room 301, Encarnacion Hall, School of Economics, University of the Philippines. 

Seminar title:  Capital Flow Diversion and Macroeconomic Spillovers of US–China Financial Decoupling

 

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Geopolitical tensions and trade fragmentation raise the prospect of U.S.–China financial decoupling, with significant implications on global capital flows. While trade impacts are well studied, the financial dimension remains largely unexplored. This research extends Dixon et al. (2021)’s GTAP-Fin model by embedding a monetary policy rule, integrating actual bilateral financial flows from the IMF and UNCTAD, and accounting for the effects of capital inflows on the domestic economy to analyze dynamic responses to a decoupling shock. The results are robust across both 3-region and 5-region models, with the analysis capturing the effects on cross-border investment, capital reallocation, and key macroeconomic variables.