Associate Professor

Jan Carlo B. Punongbayan is Associate Professor at the University of the Philippines School of Economics (UPSE). He earned his PhD, MA, and BS in Economics from UPSE, graduating summa cum laude in 2009. His research interests include education economics, macroeconomics, Philippine economic history, development economics, market design, and causal inference. His recent work examines college admissions, inflation, education policy, microfinance, and the political economy of Philippine macroeconomic history.

He is the author of False nostalgia: The Marcos “golden age” myths and how to debunk them (Ateneo de Manila University Press, 2023) and Twin plagues: How Duterte and Covid-19 wrecked the Philippine economy (Penguin Random House Southeast Asia, 2026). He is also a columnist for Rappler, co-founder of Usapang Econ, and co-host of the Usapang Econ Podcast.

Links: personal website | full CV | publications | Google Scholar | ORCID

Research interests

• Education economics
• Macroeconomics
• Philippine economic history
• Development economics
• Market design
• Causal inference

Courses taught

• Econ 201: Macroeconomic theory I
• Econ 100.1: Introduction to macroeconomic theory and policy
• Econ 101: Macroeconomics I
• Econ 102: Microeconomics I
• Econ 103: Macroeconomics II
• Econ 118: Special topics in economic history (The Philippine economy in the 1970s and 1980s)
• Econ 138: Special topics in econometrics (Causal inference in economics)
• Econ 199: Undergraduate seminar

Education

• PhD Economics, University of the Philippines School of Economics, 2015 to 2021
• Dissertation: “Essays in market design and college admissions” (adviser: Dr. Karl Robert L. Jandoc)
• MA Economics, University of the Philippines School of Economics, 2011 to 2013
• BS Economics, University of the Philippines School of Economics, 2005 to 2009, summa cum laude

Academic, research, and other positions

• Associate Professor 1, University of the Philippines School of Economics, 12 May 2026 to present
• Assistant Professor 3, University of the Philippines School of Economics, 1 February 2022 to 11 May 2026
• Director for Undergraduate Studies, University of the Philippines School of Economics, January 2026 to December 2026
• Director for Finance and Chair of the Finance Committee, University of the Philippines School of Economics, February 2023 to February 2024
• Director for Graduate Admissions and Fellowships and Chair of the Graduate Committee, University of the Philippines School of Economics, February 2022 to January 2023
• Co-convenor, Higher Education Research and Policy Reform Program, UP Center for Integrative and Development Studies, January to December 2024
• Division Chief III for Finance and Administration, Philippine Center for Economic Development, February 2023 to February 2024
• Co-founder and Editor-in-chief, Usapang Econ, September 2018 to present
• Thought Leaders Columnist, Rappler, September 2016 to present; contributor since August 2013
• Head Executive Assistant, National Economic and Development Authority, June 2014 to July 2015
• Economist, Securities and Exchange Commission, April 2012 to July 2013

Honors, awards, and fellowships

• Nominee, Outstanding young scientist award 2026, National Academy of Science and Technology
• Visiting Fellow, Philippine Studies Programme, ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute, October 2024 to January 2025 and November 2025 to January 2026
• Research Fellow, Ateneo and EDCOM2 Research Fellowship, October 2024 to September 2025
• Fellow, Social Weather Stations, 2024 to present
• Inkwell of Change Award, 11th Paragala: Central Luzon Media Awards, 2024
• UP Diliman Centennial professorial chair, 2024 and 2025 cycles
• The Outstanding Young Men of the Philippines 2023, JCI Philippines and TOYM Foundation
• Special citation, Outstanding Scholarly Work Awards for the School of Social Sciences, Ateneo de Manila University, 2020
• East Asia and Pacific PREM spot award, World Bank, FY 2014
• José Encarnación Jr. Award for Excellence in Economics, 2009
• Gerardo P. Sicat Award for Best Undergraduate Thesis, 2009

Selected publications

Journal articles

• Punongbayan, J.C., and E.S. de Dios. 2026. “Debt, dictatorship, and decline: the enduring economic impact of the Philippines’ 1980s crisis.” Review of Development Economics 30(2): 1418–1429.
• Punongbayan, J.C. 2025. “Supply and demand components of Philippine inflation, 2001–2024.” Applied Economics Letters.
• Punongbayan, J.C. 2024. “The Philippine Journal of Development in the early 21st century (2002–2023).” Philippine Journal of Development 48(2): 1–24.
• Punongbayan, J.C. 2024. “Balancing excellence and equity in predictive college admissions: insights from the University of the Philippines.” Education Economics 33(5): 794–817.
• Punongbayan, J.C. 2024. “Conversations with social scientists: Economist Emmanuel S. de Dios, PhD.” Social Science Diliman 19(1): 92–101.
• Ravago, M.V., A. Brucal, J. Roumasset, and J.C. Punongbayan. 2019. “The role of power prices in structural transformation: evidence from the Philippines.” Journal of Asian Economics 61: 20–33.
• Punongbayan, J.C. 2009. “School inputs and student performance in public elementary schools in Palawan: a quantile regression analysis.” Philippine Review of Economics 46(1): 189–218.

Books

• Punongbayan, J.C. 2026. Business economics for Filipinos: markets, policy and decision-making. Quezon City: C&E Publishing, Inc. Forthcoming.
• Punongbayan, J.C. 2026. Macroeconomics for Filipinos. Quezon City: C&E Publishing, Inc. Forthcoming.
• Punongbayan, J.C. 2026. Twin plagues: How Duterte and Covid-19 wrecked the Philippine economy. Singapore: Penguin Random House Southeast Asia.
• Punongbayan, J.C. 2023. False nostalgia: The Marcos “golden age” myths and how to debunk them. Quezon City: Ateneo de Manila University Press.

Book chapters

• Punongbayan, J.C. 2026. “Shaky recovery, misplaced priorities: the Philippines under Marcos Jr. (2022–2025).” In C.A. Calimbahin and B. Dressel, eds., Beyond geopolitics: The Philippines in the new Marcos era. ANU Philippines Institute.
• Punongbayan, J.C. 2026. “Marcos mixtape: emerging parallels between the economic policies of Marcos Sr. and Marcos Jr..” In L. Candelaria, K.C. Alvarez, and J. Pring, eds., Marcos, martial law, and the complexities of memory in the Philippines. Routledge.
• Punongbayan, J.C., and A.R. Paloyo. 2025. “Counterfactuals in economics and allied social sciences: methods, applications, and debates.” In Reference Module in Social Science. Elsevier.
• Punongbayan, J.C. 2024. “Much a Duterte about nothing: continuity, complacency, and crisis in the Philippine economy.” In A. Arugay and J.E. Franco, eds., Games, changes, and fears: The Philippines from Duterte to Marcos. Singapore: ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute.
• De Dios, E., M.S. Gochoco-Bautista, and J.C. Punongbayan. 2023. “Martial law and the Philippine economy.” In F. Llanes, ed., The Marcos years: The age of crisis and repression. SAMASA Alumni Association, Inc.
• Punongbayan, J.C. 2022. “The Marcosian ‘golden age’ myths: what they are, why they persist, and how to dispel them.” In L.C. Castañeda and P.N. Abinales, eds., The Marcos era: A reader. Quezon City: Ateneo de Manila University Press.
• Punongbayan, J.C., E.F. Esguerra, and G.M. Llanto. 2022. “Regulation, market evolution, and competition in the Philippine microfinance sector.” In H. Hill, M.V. Ravago, and J.A. Roumasset, eds., Pro-poor development policies: Lessons from the Philippines and East Asia. Singapore: ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute.
• Punongbayan, J.C., J.G. Williamson, and K.R.L. Jandoc. 2022. “Convergence of spatial inequality in the Philippines during the American colonial period.” In H. Hill, M.V. Ravago, and J.A. Roumasset, eds., Pro-poor development policies: Lessons from the Philippines and East Asia. Singapore: ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute.

Working papers, discussion papers, and policy notes

• Punongbayan, J.C. 2026. “Oil price pass-through: decomposing fuel and non-fuel inflation.” UPSE Discussion Paper No. 2026-03.
• Punongbayan, J.C. 2026. “Who benefits from suspending fuel excise taxes in the Philippines?” UPSE Policy Note.
• Punongbayan, J.C., and J.A. Arapoc. 2025. “Affirmative action in Philippine higher education institutions: evidence from a new survey.” Ateneo–EDCOM II Research Paper.
• Punongbayan, J.C., and J.A. Arapoc. 2025. “Is there a grade penalty for high school track and college degree mismatches? evidence from the University of the Philippines.” UPSE Discussion Paper No. 2025-03.
• Punongbayan, J.C., R. Lopa, S. Sarne, R.H. Bendaña, J.M. Robredo, and N.A. Cobarrubias. 2025. “Microfinance and household shocks in the Philippines: evidence from the Philippine Microfinance Survey.” WeSolve Foundation Technical Report.
• Albert, J.R.G., C. Bayudan-Dacuycuy, I. Angeles-Agdeppa, J.C. Punongbayan, D.L.D. Cabalfin, A.R.P. Vargas, C.A. Duante, E.B. Ferrer, and C.M. Fernandez-Patalen. 2024. “Measuring poverty within Filipino households: examining resource sharing and economies of scale.” PIDS Discussion Paper No. 2024-37.
• Monsod, T.C., E.S. de Dios, C.D. Magno, J.C. Punongbayan, et al. 2024. “How to change a constitution by hand-waving (or, the unbearable lightness of evidence in support of lifting foreign ownership restrictions).” UPSE Discussion Paper No. 2024-01.
• Punongbayan, J.C., et al. 2023. “Maharlika Investment Fund: still beyond repair.” UPSE Discussion Paper No. 2023-02.
• Albert, J.R.G., J.C. Punongbayan, and M.S. Muñoz. 2024. “Returns to education in the Philippines (2005–2022): declining benefits, increased inequities.” PIDS Policy Note No. 2024-09.
• Tan, E., K. Canales, K. Cruz, and J.C. Punongbayan. 2011. “Why are boys falling behind girls in schooling?” UPSE Discussion Paper No. 2011-12.

Other publications and public engagement

• Opinion writing: Rappler author page
• ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute: “Politics in the purse: political budget cycles as constraints to Philippine development” (2025)
• Fulcrum: “Rethinking economic planning in the Philippines” (2025)
• Fulcrum: “Addressing the Philippines’ education crisis” (2024)
• Podcast: co-host, Usapang Econ Podcast

Other academic duties

• Associate editor, Social Science Diliman, January 2022 to present
• Faculty adviser, UP Economics Toward Consciousness, 2023 to present
• Referee for journals including Philippine Review of Economics, Philippine Journal of Development, Journal of Southeast Asian Economies, Journal of East Asian Studies, Applied Economics Letters, Asian Politics & Policy, and Philippine Political Science Journal