You are cordially invited to a Brown Bag Seminar by Manuel Leonard Albis, PhD candidate at the UP School of Economics. The seminar will be on October 14, 2026 (Wednesday), 12NN, at Room 301, Encarnacion Hall, School of Economics, University of the Philippines.

Seminar title: Poverty Incidence Bounds for the Philippines

Abstract: The official poverty estimation methodology of the Philippines was last updated in 2011. This implies that the share of food to total basic expenditures (FETBE), used to estimate the poverty threshold, has since remained fixed. Arguments in favor of a fixed FETBE rely on the concept of an absolute poverty line that sets a constant level of welfare against which to assess households and the progress of the government’s poverty alleviation programs. However, this study argues that the PSA methodology has only managed to fix the basket of basic needs, which does not necessarily correspond to a fixed level of welfare over time. This does not fare well when households experience significant economic shocks that change the composition of the basic needs basket, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. Furthermore, the study found that, in recent years, the official poverty line is close to a theoretical lower limit, suggesting it is insufficient to meet households’ basic needs. Other methodological issues in the calculation were discussed, including the selection of the reference group, exclusion of some items in measuring the share of food to household expenditures, and the potential asymmetry of the reference group in favor of higher-income households used to calculate the poverty threshold. Using the theoretical poverty threshold bounds as a basis for an updated PSA methodology is viable.

Register here:
Face-to-face: https://bit.ly/4zgO8Ob
Online: https://bit.ly/4hApVws

We hope to see you there!