The University of the Philippines School of Economics, in collaboration with the Philippine Center for Economic Development, invites you to a brown bag seminar by Mark Jerome de Leon, PhD candidate at the UP School of Economics.

 

The seminar on December 10, 2025 (Wednesday), will be held at 12NN, Room 301, Encarnacion Hall, School of Economics, University of the Philippines. 

 

Seminar title: A Yield Curve-Based Test of Monetary Credibility in the Philippines

 

Abstract:

This study examines whether long-term inflation expectations in the Philippines remain anchored under the BSP’s inflation-targeting regime. Using daily yield curve data, it analyzes how the level factor, which serves as a yield curve-based proxy for long-run inflation expectations, responds to short-run inflation surprises. The event-study framework is extended with local projections, rolling regressions, and threshold models to assess how expectations evolve over time and under varying inflation conditions. 

 

The findings suggest that expectations are generally stable but become more responsive when inflation exceeds key thresholds. This points to the state-contingent nature of monetary credibility and highlights the potential of bond market signals as real-time indicators of central bank effectiveness in emerging markets.