Abstract

This study examines the time-varying impact of global value chains (GVCs) on the exchange rate elasticities of merchandise exports using a panel of 124 countries from 1995 to 2018. The time-varying coefficient (TVC) regressions reveal that export elasticities progressively weakened from the 1990s to the early 2010s, which coincided with intensive trade liberalization and the exponential rise of GVCs prior to the global financial crisis. After plateauing in 2012, export elasticities slightly strengthened during the late 2010s, a period overlapping with “slowbalization”, supply chain disruptions, and trade tensions. These results suggest that export elasticities negatively co-evolve with the globalization cycle, with stronger sensitivity observed when GVCs are less important and standard expenditure-switching mechanisms dominate. Consistent with the static fixed effects regressions, the TVC results confirm that GVC participation attenuates export elasticities primarily through backward transactions, while forward linkages likely produced an offsetting effect. This is mainly traced to the contrasting impact of real depreciations on external competitiveness and the cost of foreign value added in exports. The results are robust across various specifications of the TVC model.
 

Access the full paper here:  https://doi.org/10.1007/s11079-026-09864-6

 

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