ABSTRACT

This paper examines the extent and dynamics of grade inflation during the COVID-19 pandemic using a comprehensive student-level panel dataset from the University of the Philippines Diliman spanning AY 2015-2024. Using an event-study design, we trace how average grades evolved before, during, and after the pandemic. We find a sharp and statistically significant rise in grades beginning in the second semester of AY 2019-2020 — coinciding with the university’s “compassionate grading” policies — followed by a gradual yet incomplete normalization in later semesters. Specification tests show no major pre-trend bias but reveal non-constant post-event effects, indicating a transitory but persistent shift in grading patterns. These results provide causal evidence of pandemic-induced grade inflation in a developing-country setting and offer policy insights on how universities can restore grading integrity while maintaining compassion and fairness in times of crisis.

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