About Per SE

Commentary and research on current events and public policy by economists from the University of the Philippines
Monthly archive January 2016

External uncertainties, headwinds and push factors in 2016 for the Phl economy

At the start of 2016, external factors produced shock waves to the economy. These were the same factors that bothered us during 2014 and 2015, only this time they produced sharper volatility.

Falling oil price: winners and losers

The conventional view is that a big plunge in oil prices would have a positive effect on the global economy; the greater the fall, the more positive the effect. Now there are reasons to believe that such a rosy view of the oil plunge may be wrong after all.

Selected faculty publications 2010-2014

Publications by UPSE Faculty in 2010-2014 indexed in the Web of Science (Thomson-Reuters).

Menorca, SSS pension hike, etc.: my 2 cents’ worth

I cannot resist putting in my two cents’ worth of comment, or rather questions, on the news reports on what has been going in Metro Manila this week. So here goes.

Populist measures that do damage: SSS pension increase without the means

Of what use is a measure that proposes to do good if it destroys the very institution that produces the goodie? Don’t kill the goose that lays the golden egg!

Political fallout from veto of SSS pension hike was avoidable

President Benigno S. C. Aquino III’s veto of House Bill 5842 mandating P2,000 across-the-board increase in the monthly pension of Social Security System (SSS) pensioners is the right move. Signing it into law would be fiscally irresponsible.

A city is not a country

Size -- whether measured by area or population -- is the biggest difference between a city and a “real country.” Size correlates with heterogeneity in the population, their activities, their environment, and therefore their needs and opinions.

Science a sine qua non for human progress

Science is a soft—hence, often unheralded—infrastructure for progress. But much of history is about this dynamic, especially since the Industrial Revolution when science and technology (S&T) played an increasing role. Nations strive to invest in human capital, deemed a key factor in sustaining progress.

Shortcomings and gaps: Philippine economy and Aquino presidency, 2010-2016

After presenting the macroeconomic aspects of the economy during the Aquino years, I will now focus on the shortcomings and gaps. This leads us to a closer look at the quality and depth of the development process, to the exposition of problems lurking ahead.

Awe-inspiring: LJM and NKTI

Letty, you are missed. And more so now, when the country is at a crossroads. Wish you were still here to help inform our decisions.

What’s in store for the country in 2016? Rapid, middle-of-the-road, or slow growth?

I forecast that 2016 would be similar to 2015.

The Philippine economy and Benigno Aquino III’s presidency, 2010-2016

We are now in the last six months of the presidency of Benigno Aquino III. Final evaluation is premature. However, it is now possible to assess where the present administration has taken the economy and, in consequence, the nation.