Core
Business World, 31 March 2015
In the beginning, President Benigno S. C. Aquino III had an extremely high political capital — a net approval rating (NAR) of 76% (79% approval and 3% disapproval) and net trust rating (NTR) of 78% (80% trust and 2% distrust). His huge political capital was the envy of most political heads of state.
But in an unfortunate twist of fate, going into the final year of his presidency, Mr. Aquino’s high political capital has been virtually dissipated. His NAR has plummeted from 76% to 15% while his NTR has sunk from 78% to 9%.
I can attribute the sharp fall in Mr. Aquino’s approval and trust ratings to two factors. First, the constitutionally flawed Disbursement Acceleration Program (DAP), which he authored, tolerated, and defended vigorously. Plainly, many Filipinos resented the fiscal irresponsibility of the President. He usurped the congressional power of the purse and misused public funds.
Second, Mr. Aquino’s refusal to take full responsibility for the bungled Mamasapano incident that resulted in the death of 44 Philippine National Police-Special Action Force (PNP-SAF) officers, his lack of compassion for the families of the dead officers, and the perception that he’s not telling the truth about the whole Mamasapano tragedy.
Some politicians — friends and foes alike — advised President Aquino III to apologize, to say sorry for the Mamasapano disaster. But, after two months, it is clear that he won’t apologize.
The erosion of Mr. Aquino’s NAR and NTR has been unmitigated. As a result, the endorsement value for his preferred presidential candidate has been largely diminished.
With a net trust rating of 9%, can Aquino still push for real reforms?
Mr. Aquino’s ability to have a strong finish during the last 450 days of his six-year term is now very much in doubt. With a net trust rating of 9%, he cannot be expected to adopt politically unpopular, but economically sound, economic and political reforms.
His timetable for the approval of the Bangsamoro Basic Law (BBL) has been derailed by the bloody Mamasapano encounter. Pulse Asia, in its March 1-7 2015 survey, showed that 44 % of respondents are opposed to the passage of the BBL while 21% are in favor. In the same survey, 79% of Filipinos disagreed with the President Aquino’s decision to ignore the arrival honors for the fallen members of the PNP-SAF in favor another event
The BBL is dead in the water. No politician who is running for reelection or running for higher office in 2016 can be expected to touch the BBL proposal with a ten-foot pole.
Likewise, the timetable for announcing his likely heir apparent has gone awry.
But in a way, Mr. Aquino is still quite lucky. Were it not for the certainty that his term will end in 14 months, he would have been under a lot of pressure to step down. Right now, the Filipino people are just tolerating his stay for a few more months in lieu of the uncertainty associated with a regime change.
Free fall
Mr. Aquino started his presidency with a very high NAR. On his first Pulse Asia survey (October 20-29 2010), he got an approval rating of 79% and a disapproval rating of 3%, or a NAR of 76%. His trust rating was equally impressive: 80% trusted him while 2% distrusted him, or a NTR of 78%.
Mr. Aquino’s NAR plummeted from 62% in March 2014 to 42% in June 2014, or by 20% when the Supreme Court ruled that several acts under the DAP as unconstitutional.
The toll on Mr. Aquino trust rating has been more severe. As a result of his constitutionally flawed DAP, and his vigorous defense of his budget guru (Secretary Abad), his NTR sunk from 60% to 39%, or by 21%. Those who trusted him fell from 69% in March 2014 to 53% in June 2014 while those who distrusted him rose from 9% to 14%.
Finally, Mr. Aquino’s NAR has dwindled to its all-time low of 15% as a result of the Mamasapano debacle, from an all-time high of 76%. The sharp fall of Mr. Aquino’s trust rating should also be a cause for grave concern. From an all-time high NTR of 78% early in his term, Mr. Aquino’s latest NTR plummeted to a measly 9% (36% trust, 27% distrust).
Stop digging, focus, prioritize, work like a dog
Here’s my unsolicited advice: Mr. President, if you’re incapable of saying sorry, just quit talking. The more you talk, the more you dig yourself a deeper hole. So, stop digging.
Focus on the affairs of government by appointing good men to vacant posts in key government offices — the Commission on Elections, the Civil Service Commission, the Philippine National Police. In the final year of your presidency, you cannot afford to have a government run by officers-in charge since they have limited authority. But in appointing the best fit for the job, choose the best and the brightest.
Focus on your job. Concentrate on narrowing the infrastructure gap, which is a big turn-off for potential investors. For example, decide now which airport — NAIA, Clark, or Sangley — will serve the country’s future aviation needs. Fix the rickety urban transit system. Both should have been done many years ago.
Ensure energy supply and its affordability and reliability. Provide more decent jobs for Filipinos at home. Adopt an internationally competitive mining law. Modernize the agriculture sector by increasing investment in agriculture-enhancing infrastructure and technology.
The list of unfinished business is long. Since time is short, prioritize, prioritize, and prioritize. Finally, work like a dog: implement programs and projects with an extreme sense of urgency.
